The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that renewed fighting between the US and Iran threatens to derail a recovery in global oil supply. The conflict, triggered by disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, has cut crude flows by up to 14 million barrels per day. A lull in fighting has opened the door for diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and Qatar to revive a ceasefire, but the US military remains ready to resume attacks. The IEA's forecast of a market surplus in 2027 depends on the strait reopening.

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its New York initial public offering on the Nasdaq, the largest ever by a foreign firm in the US. Shares surged 17% on debut. The company, a key supplier to Nvidia, benefits from booming AI demand for high-bandwidth memory chips. Proceeds will fund new fabrication and packaging facilities in South Korea, supporting the country's semiconductor ambitions.

Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate Rahm Emanuel criticized the US policy of unconditional support for Israel, stating that Prime Minister Netanyahu's government has isolated Israel internationally. Speaking at Tel Aviv University, he noted declining global support for Israel, citing that only 37% of Americans now hold a favorable view of Israel, down from 55% in 2022, and pointed to Somaliland as Israel's only new diplomatic gain. Emanuel met with President Isaac Herzog but not with Netanyahu, who reportedly called him a 'self-hating Jew' in 2009.

Background: Ukraine's UN Ambassador Andriy Melnyk has previously condemned Russia's intensified strikes on civilians and urged tighter sanctions and a special tribunal. Today: On July 8, 2026, the United States, represented by Ambassador Dan Negrea at the UN Security Council, condemned Russia's wave of strikes on Kyiv between July 2 and July 6 that killed at least 50 civilians and injured many more. Negrea highlighted the destruction of homes, critical infrastructure, and cultural heritage, and called on Russia to 'stop the killing' and end the war. He noted that Russia continues to suffer nearly 40,000 casualties each month and reiterated President Donald Trump's call for Russia to 'make a deal, stop the killing, and end the war.' The US reaffirmed its commitment to an immediate ceasefire and a negotiated resolution.

Background: Iran's new leadership, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, has adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today's development: The regime has leveraged Khamenei's death to revive its martyrdom ideology, staging massive funeral processions. While a majority of Iranians oppose the regime, it retains the ability to mobilize a significant minority. The country faces severe economic hardship, with hundreds of thousands losing their jobs and the middle class sinking into poverty. The post-war situation remains deadlocked, with no peace agreement and ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US has offered economic incentives for opening the strait and agreeing to a nuclear deal, but Tehran deeply distrusts Trump, who previously withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and has now declared a June memorandum void. The regime is fragile, and the Supreme Leader cannot even attend his father's funeral.

Background: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously reported that Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian territorial gains in May 2026 being a fraction of those in May 2025. New development: ISW now assesses that the Kremlin is struggling to adjust its narrative after the Trump administration denied Russian negotiating tactics and acknowledged Ukrainian successes. An anonymous Russian general reportedly admitted Russia is inflating successes while pursuing an unwinnable war of attrition. Ukrainian forces initiated a new phase in isolating occupied Crimea by targeting Russian seaborne gasoline tankers and conducted long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on July 9.

Background: The IAEA has been pressing Iran to clarify the fate of enriched uranium and resume inspections after nuclear sites were bombed a year ago. On 10 July 2026, the UN Security Council heard from Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo, who called on all parties to engage constructively and in good faith to resolve the Iran nuclear issue. She pointed to the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran as evidence of diplomatic progress, including agreements on enriched material disposition, on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision, and continued discussions on enrichment and civilian nuclear needs. DiCarlo also warned that the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge across all of Iran's declared nuclear facilities, including centrifuges, rotors, heavy water, and uranium ore concentrate, and assessed that this knowledge cannot be restored.

Background: Six B-52 bombers departed RAF Fairford on July 1, ending a deployment that supported strikes against Iran during the Epic Fury campaign, amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing talks. Today: Ten F-22 Raptors from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base arrived at RAF Fairford from Ovda Air Base, Israel, on July 10, 2026, after flying over 200 undetected combat sorties targeting Iranian air defenses, nuclear infrastructure at Fordow and Natanz, and IRGC command nodes. The redeployment is part of a broader US drawdown from the region, following the departure of B-52 bombers on July 1. The movement comes as renewed hostilities erupted after Iran attacked three tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US strikes on approximately 90 Iranian coastal targets on July 8. President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8, but Qatari negotiators have traveled to Iran to de-escalate, and Trump later agreed to continue talks. The F-22s are expected to return to Langley; it is unclear if they will be replaced.

Former Obama chief of staff and anticipated 2028 presidential candidate Rahm Emanuel criticized President Donald Trump's handling of Iran negotiations, accusing Tehran of 'schooling' Trump on deal-making. In an interview, Emanuel proposed that the U.N.-affiliated International Maritime Association charge fees for Strait of Hormuz passage to benefit all affected nations, and called for developing alternative oil routes to reduce Iranian leverage. His comments came as the U.S. and Iran resumed hostilities after the ceasefire collapsed.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that US envoy Steve Witkoff described Gaza's entire population as 'two million Nazis' during a private meeting in August 2024, after viewing a propaganda video. Smotrich also called for permanent Israeli territorial expansion in Lebanon, advocating a security zone. The remarks highlight extreme rhetoric within Israeli government circles and ongoing tensions over Gaza and Lebanon.

A detailed analysis of Hezbollah's military campaign from April to June 2026 reveals a deliberate risk strategy using cheap fiber-optic drones and rockets to keep the southern Lebanon front on the brink of escalation. By raising the threat of a wider regional war, Hezbollah compelled Washington to include Lebanon in the US-Iran framework agreement signed on June 15, 2026. The campaign targeted Israeli forces, command nodes, and air defenses, generating political pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu and giving Tehran leverage in negotiations. The agreement is now fraying amid renewed US strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions, leaving Washington trapped managing a conflict it cannot easily exit.

Background: Egyptian President el-Sisi and Iranian President Pezeshkian previously discussed ongoing indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington. On July 10, 2026, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani jointly called on the United States and Iran to resume negotiations, urging all parties to prioritize diplomacy and dialogue. The call came as President Trump stated the US agreed to continue talks but declared the ceasefire over.

Background: China had called for a proper settlement to end disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks continued in Doha. In a new development, Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani publicly urged the US and Iran to honor their Memorandum of Understanding and continue talks to prevent escalation and protect freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. He made the appeal during a phone call with Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. The New York Times reported that Qatar has been mediating between Washington and Tehran to keep communication channels open. Additionally, the Qatari Foreign Ministry confirmed that the Prime Minister received a phone call from Iran's Foreign Minister on July 9, 2026.

Background: Qatari negotiators previously left Tehran after overnight US-Iran talks on the Middle East war. Today, a new Qatari delegation visited Iran on Friday to strengthen its mediation role following renewed US-Iran hostilities, meeting Iranian officials to de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations in coordination with the US, according to Iran's Tasnim news agency and a source cited by Reuters.

Delta Airlines reported a $1.4 billion profit in Q2 2024, with record-high revenue driven by strong travel demand. CEO Ed Bastian stated that high airfares will persist despite falling oil prices, as the airline has passed 60% of fuel cost increases to consumers and plans to pass all costs eventually. Premium revenue grew 17% year-over-year, while main cabin sales rose only 8%, indicating a K-shaped recovery favoring wealthier travelers. Delta expanded its premium offerings with a 'basic business' option. The airline holds 20% market share but expects to account for 60% of industry profits this quarter.

Rahm Emanuel, a Democratic presidential hopeful for 2028, endorsed Donald Trump's demand that NATO allies spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, criticizing European dependence on U.S. resources. The pledge, agreed at the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, faced pushback from Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who argued Spain could meet NATO's capability targets while limiting defense spending to 2.1% of GDP.