The Militarization of Indian Artificial Intelligence in South Asia

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. The Development of Military AI in South Asia
2. Technological Progress and Strategic Application of Military AI in India
3. Development Initiatives and Resource Investment in Military AI in Pakistan
4. The Impact of AI on Nuclear Stability
5. The Role of AI in Nuclear Targeting and Decision-Making
6. Attribution Challenges and Cybersecurity Risks of Autonomous Weapon Systems
7. The Need for Confidence-Building Measures Targeting AI
8. The Necessity and Core Objectives of India-Pakistan Bilateral Dialogue
9. Major Obstacles to Building Military AI Confidence Measures
10. Pathways and Challenges for Incorporating AI into Arms Control Dialogue

Document Introduction

India's deployment of 140 AI-based surveillance systems along its northwestern border with Pakistan in October 2023 marked the entry of AI militarization in South Asia into a substantive development phase, raising concerns about regional strategic stability. This report focuses on this core trend, conducting a systematic analysis centered on the development dynamics and technological applications of military AI in India and Pakistan, as well as their profound impact on regional nuclear stability. The core issue directly addresses the risks of a technology-driven regional arms race and the possibility of nuclear escalation.

The report first outlines the development landscape of military AI in South Asia: India has made significant progress in areas such as swarm drones and multi-source fusion surveillance systems by establishing a Military Committee on AI, setting up the Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA), and investing an annual budget of $12 million. The application of AI in its military strategy has already enhanced the synergy between its nuclear and conventional arsenals. Although Pakistan started later and has limited defense spending, it has gradually advanced AI research and application in areas like cybersecurity and electronic warfare by establishing institutions such as the National Centre of Robotics and Automation and the Air Force Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC).

In terms of impact analysis, the report focuses on the dual role of AI in nuclear stability: on one hand, AI's big data processing and precise targeting capabilities can improve the detection efficiency of mobile nuclear devices and reduce human error; on the other hand, its rapid decision-making characteristics, the attribution dilemma of Autonomous Weapon Systems (AWS), and cybersecurity vulnerabilities significantly increase the risk of miscalculation and accidental nuclear escalation during crises. This risk is particularly pronounced against the backdrop of frequent small-scale conflicts along the India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC).

The report further points out that the developmental disparities and deep-seated mistrust between India and Pakistan in the field of military AI, coupled with factors such as political resistance and the challenge of balancing transparency and security, severely hinder the establishment of common standards. Based on this, the report emphasizes the urgency of building bilateral confidence measures. It proposes that measures such as formulating codes of conduct for military AI applications, promoting Track II diplomacy, and establishing dedicated communication channels should be adopted to alleviate the pressure of a technological arms race and maintain strategic stability in South Asia. The analysis in this report is based on relevant data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and officially released information on institutional setups and budgets from both countries, providing a key reference for understanding South Asian security dynamics in the context of AI militarization.