India and Russia: Exploring New Pathways for Cooperation

Key Chapter Title List

1. High-Level India-Russia Interactions and the Trajectory of Bilateral Relations Development
2. Western Pressure and the Surge in India-Russia Economic and Trade Relations Against the Backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
3. The Historical Status and Declining Trend of India-Russia Military-Technical Cooperation
4. Analysis of the Motivations Behind India's Defense Procurement Diversification Strategy
5. The Practical Challenges and Impact of Sanctions on India-Russia Cooperation
6. The Potential Impact of Warming Russia-China Relations on India-Russia Defense Cooperation
7. India's Continued Dependence on Russian Military Equipment and New Procurement Intentions
8. Agenda for Putin's Visit to India: Trade, Regional Cooperation, and Key Issues
9. The Impact of India-Russia Cooperation on the West's Policy of Isolating Russia
10. The Logic of Bilateral Relations Under India's Strategic Autonomy Policy

Document Introduction

In 2024, Prime Minister Modi visited Russia twice after a five-year gap, and Putin plans to visit India in early 2025, marking a new phase of interaction in India-Russia relations after a decade of profound adjustments. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India faced Western criticism for refusing to condemn Russia and not participating in international sanctions, while Russia, under Western sanctions, lost some markets. Consequently, bilateral economic and trade cooperation rapidly intensified.

Bilateral trade volume surged from a mere $12 billion pre-war to $65 billion in 2023, making India Russia's second-largest trading partner. India imports crude oil from Russia while expanding exports of consumer electronics, machinery, and mechanical equipment. The Reserve Bank of India allowed Russian entities to open special vostro accounts, effectively alleviating bilateral payment difficulties.

Military-technical cooperation, the cornerstone of post-Cold War India-Russia relations, shows a declining trend. India's share of defense imports from Russia dropped from 76% in 2009 to 36% in 2023. This change stems from India's defense procurement diversification strategy based on regional security considerations. To address Chinese movements in the Himalayan region and the Indian Ocean, India procures weapons from Western countries like France and the United States and focuses on developing indigenous defense production. Simultaneously, Russia's military industry is concentrated on the Ukraine battlefield, leading to delays in the delivery of remaining squadrons of the S-400 missile defense system to India and the supply of weapon spare parts.

Western sanctions continue to test India-Russia relations. Indian company Infosys closed its Russian operations, while Tata Group, L&T, and other firms restricted their business in Russia. India has also explicitly stated it will not purchase products from sanctioned LNG projects. U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies and oil tankers also impact India's imports of Russian oil. Furthermore, deepening Russia-China trade and military cooperation raises concerns in India. Although India believes this has not yet affected its own relations with Russia, there is worry that if Russia prioritizes developing ties with China, it could lead to insufficient equipment supplies for the Indian military.

Notably, India still has significant dependence on Russian weapons. Its military equipment includes various Russian-made systems such as T-72 and T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI fighter jets, among others. Recently, India initiated a plan to replace domestic INSAS rifles with Russian-made AK-203 rifles and intends to procure the $40 billion, 6000-km range Voronezh radar system. During Putin's visit to India, the two sides are expected to discuss enhancing bilateral trade, cooperation in the Far East and Arctic regions, increasing the capacity of the Chennai-Vladivostok economic corridor, trade payment settlement and anti-sanction mechanisms, the repatriation of Indian citizens, and solutions to the Ukraine war, among other issues.

From a strategic perspective, Putin's visit to India represents a diplomatic breakthrough for Russia, demonstrating the failure of the West's policy to isolate Russia. For India, it is a significant move to practice strategic autonomy and promote a multipolar world order. Although India's elite class leans towards the West, India and Russia, based on the long-standing principle of strategic autonomy, are continuously exploring new areas of cooperation to ensure the continued relevance of their bilateral relationship.