Can Central Asia Secure Growth Through Critical Mineral Investments?

Key Chapter Title List

1. The Strategic Position of Critical Minerals in the Global Supply Chain
2. China's Dominant Landscape in Global Critical Mineral Production and Processing
3. Endowment and Development Status of Critical Mineral Resources in Central Asia
4. Progress and Mechanisms of Critical Mineral Cooperation Between the West and Central Asia
5. Strategic Initiatives of the United States in Critical Mineral Cooperation with Central Asia
6. Critical Mineral Development Strategies and Plans of Central Asian Countries
7. Development Challenges and Risks Facing Critical Mineral Development
8. Modernization Needs in the Exploration Phase of the Mineral Value Chain
9. Institutional and Environmental Governance Issues in the Mineral Extraction Phase
10. The Bottleneck of Insufficient Local Processing Capacity and Regional Value Chain Construction
11. Synergistic Pathways for External Cooperation and Long-term Development in Central Asia
12. The Transformation Path from Resource Curse to Development Dividend

Document Introduction

The competition among global powers for critical mineral resources is intensifying. The irreplaceability of critical minerals such as copper, lithium, and nickel in technology, aviation, military, and clean energy technologies makes them a core pillar of the global supply chain. For the resource-rich Central Asian region, this global trend brings unprecedented development opportunities but also harbors the risk of falling into resource dependency. The core issue lies in whether the region can transform its critical mineral wealth into sustainable growth momentum, rather than becoming a new victim of the "resource curse."

China currently controls 60% of global critical mineral production and over 85% of processing capacity, leading the United States and other Western actors to become dependent on a geopolitical rival in this field. Consequently, Central Asia has become a significant potential alternative for supply chain diversification. The trade pattern of antimony, a critical mineral for defense and electronics, highlights the urgency of this competition—63% of U.S. antimony imports come from China, while 78% of Tajikistan's antimony production is exported to China for processing. Kyrgyzstan holds 13% of global antimony reserves, making it an alternative source of interest to the West.

Western countries have actively advanced critical mineral cooperation with Central Asian nations: the UK/EU signed a Memorandum of Strategic Partnership and roadmap with Kazakhstan; the US/EU reached a similar agreement with Uzbekistan; and Danish companies have established cooperation with relevant departments in Tajikistan. The United States has been particularly proactive. A 2024 RAND Corporation report recommended that the West assist the five Central Asian countries in mineral resource development and capacity building. The joint statement from the C5+1 Presidential Summit listed critical minerals as a core energy security issue. The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue mechanism further promotes Central Asia's integration into the global supply chain. Cooperation in this area is expected to continue deepening under the new administration.

Leaders of Central Asian countries have recognized the strategic value of mineral resources. The President of Kazakhstan referred to rare earth minerals as the "new oil," and Uzbekistan launched a $5 billion rare earth metals development plan. However, critical mineral development faces multiple challenges simultaneously: the exploration phase is constrained by outdated Soviet-era geological data, with exploration expenditures from 2003-2023 equivalent only to the level of a single year in 1990; the extraction phase suffers from unfavorable institutional frameworks, inconsistent tax systems, and weak capacity for managing social and environmental impacts; the processing phase represents the core bottleneck, as most Central Asian countries lack the processing capacity needed for value addition.

The report emphasizes that Central Asia needs to achieve sustainable development through comprehensive value chain upgrading: introducing advanced technology and local investment in the exploration phase, improving governance frameworks and ESG compliance in the extraction phase, and constructing regional value chains in the processing phase (e.g., synergy between Kyrgyzstan's titanium ore and Kazakhstan's processing capacity). External cooperation should use this as a blueprint, with governments and international partners prioritizing long-term development over short-term gains. In the context of resource competition among global powers, only by proactively taking control of its development agenda can Central Asia transform its critical mineral potential into lasting development dividends.