Horizon Europe - Analysis of the Strategic Plan for the Year: R&D and Innovation Layout Amid Geopolitical Changes

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Societal Challenges and Response Policies
2. The EU R&I Landscape from a Global Perspective
3. New R&I Needs and Potential Generated by Global Challenges
4. Core Potential and Implementation Progress of the Horizon Europe Programme
5. Potential and Limitations in Innovation Output Transformation
6. Evolution of the Geopolitical Landscape and Its Consequences
7. The Unique Role of Research and Innovation
8. R&I Needs for Implementing the Green Deal
9. R&I Needs for Digital and Technological Transformation
10. R&I Needs for Enhancing EU Resilience
11. Synergies Between Horizon Europe and Other EU Funds
12. Gap Analysis and Strategic Positioning Across Sectors

Document Introduction

The world is currently experiencing multiple overlapping crises and geopolitical restructuring. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy crisis, and climate change have heightened uncertainty, underscoring the urgency for the EU to build open strategic autonomy and resilience. In this context, research and innovation (R&I) has become central to the EU's policy agenda. As the EU's flagship R&I funding framework, the formulation and implementation of the Horizon Europe programme's strategic plan for 2025-2027 are directly linked to the EU's capacity for green and digital transitions and its ability to address global challenges.

Based on solid empirical research and forward-looking analysis, this report systematically reviews the current state and global positioning of the EU's R&I ecosystem, providing an in-depth analysis of core issues such as strategic dependencies, technological gaps, and regional imbalances faced by the EU amidst global changes. By integrating data from the December 2022 citizen engagement activities, the 12-week public consultation (involving 2258 respondents), and various policy documents and data sources, the report constructs an analytical framework covering four key dimensions: societal challenges, the R&I landscape, innovation needs, and programme potential.

Methodologically, the report combines diverse tools such as customized foresight forecasting, the latest performance evaluation data (e.g., the EU's 2022 R&I Performance Report), multi-level global scenario simulations, and cluster gap analysis to ensure the objectivity and foresight of its conclusions. Data sources include patent application statistics, scientific publication metrics, R&D expenditure accounting, and policy implementation tracking, comprehensively covering R&I dynamics across the 27 EU member states and major global economies.

Key findings reveal that while the EU remains a powerhouse in scientific output (accounting for 20% globally in 2020), it lags behind the United States, China, and Japan in areas such as R&D intensity (R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP) and patents in digital technologies. Although the EU maintains a leading position in the green transition, it must contend with the rapid catch-up of economies like China. In terms of digital sovereignty, there are risks of strategic dependency in key technology areas such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. The report identifies three priority directions for future EU R&I: systemic changes related to the Green Deal, achieving autonomy and control in digital and technological transformation, and building resilience encompassing civil security, health security, and social equity.

The report also assesses the implementation progress of the Horizon Europe programme for 2021-2022, including the processing of 44,832 eligible proposals, a project success rate of 15.9%, and a €34 billion funding gap for high-quality proposals. It highlights key policy demands such as enhancing synergies between Horizon Europe and other EU funds, eliminating regional innovation divides, and promoting the transformation of research results. This report provides an authoritative reference for understanding the strategic adjustments in EU R&I policy and holds significant guiding value for policymakers, R&I institutions, businesses, and international partners.