EU could end Russian gas imports this year: Clean energy accelerates path

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Core Findings
2. Key Recommendations
3. Current Situation Analysis
4. Scope of Analysis
5. Core Assumptions for Gas Import Savings Analysis
6. Fossil Gas Import Savings Potential
7. Bold Government Action Required
8. Medium- to Long-Term Considerations
9. Technical Methodology
10. Detailed Key Actions

Document Introduction

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the deep interconnections between energy, security, and geopolitics. The EU's high dependence on Russian fossil gas has become a strategic issue requiring urgent resolution. This report, jointly authored by Bellona, E3G, Ember, and RAP, aims to inform policymaking for the EU and its member states, exploring feasible pathways to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian gas through clean energy solutions.

The report clearly defines its scope, focusing on reducing gas dependence in the EU-27 over the next 1-4 years. It analyzes the substitution potential of measures such as demand-side energy efficiency improvements, end-use electrification, and supply-side renewable energy expansion, while avoiding solutions with limited short-term impact like behavioral changes and large-scale hydrogen deployment. The analysis is based on the EU's "Fit for 55" policy framework as a benchmark, incorporating realistic sectoral delivery capabilities to establish conservative and pragmatic modeling assumptions.

Core findings show that by fully implementing the "Fit for 55" package and accelerating renewable electricity deployment, energy efficiency, and electrification, the EU could cut Russian gas imports by 66% by 2025, equivalent to a reduction of 101 billion cubic meters. Achieving this goal does not require building new gas import infrastructure like LNG terminals; existing idle assets are sufficient to meet the demand for 51 billion cubic meters of alternative gas imports. Furthermore, it does not necessitate extending the operational life of coal-fired power plants.

The report proposes ten key policy actions, including raising the ambition and accelerating the implementation of the "Fit for 55" policies, clarifying funding for clean energy solutions, prioritizing energy efficiency as an energy security measure, removing incentives for gas consumption, and supporting the rollout of renewables and heat pumps. It also emphasizes the need to establish a dedicated European Commission task force to monitor low-carbon supply chain risks, ensure a just energy transition, and avoid lock-in from fossil fuel infrastructure and contracts.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the report highlights the strategic value of renewable hydrogen for industrial feedstock substitution and energy storage, recommending its prioritized deployment in sectors with no other viable decarbonization options. It also underscores the important role of the circular economy, material efficiency, and recycling in reducing gas demand. The report advocates for enhancing resilience through strengthened low-carbon supply chain risk management, rather than pursuing absolute self-sufficiency.