Annual Horizon Report: Analysis of Potential Disruptive Events in the Future

Key Chapter Title List

1. Preface
2. Introduction
3. Reflection Guide
4. Research Methodology
5. Findings
6. Reflection on Key Disruptive Events (Salient and Underanticipated Events)
7. Exploring the Interconnectedness of Disruptive Events
8. Potential Disruptive Events for 2024 (by Domain)
9. Conclusion
10. Acknowledgements

Document Introduction

In recent years, the world has experienced a series of major disruptive events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme climate disasters, leading to a significant increase in future uncertainty. This report centers on the core question, "What is the next disruptive event that needs to be anticipated?" aiming to provide forward-looking analysis for Canadian government policymakers.

The report identifies and assesses 35 potential disruptive events that could have significant impacts on Canadian society and the globe, covering five major domains: social, economic, environmental, health, and political/geopolitical. While these events are not inevitable, they are plausible, and their impacts may exhibit dual positive and negative attributes depending on the perspective.

The research methodology integrates literature review, expert interviews, dialogues with policymakers, foresight practitioner workshops, and analysis of societal change trends. Based on survey feedback from approximately 500 stakeholders, colleagues, and foresight experts, the assessment is conducted across four dimensions: likelihood of occurrence, magnitude of impact, timeframe, and event interconnectedness.

The findings show that events such as "Difficulty Distinguishing Truth from Falsehood," "Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Collapse," and "Overwhelmed Emergency Response" rank among the top ten disruptive events in terms of combined likelihood and impact. Furthermore, the report provides a detailed analysis of 18 key events, including 10 salient events and 8 underanticipated events, such as "Antibiotic Failure" and "Outbreak of Civil War in the United States."

The report further explores the interconnections between disruptive events, revealing the potential chain reactions that some high-likelihood, high-impact events could trigger, forming a "perfect storm." These analyses provide crucial reference for policymakers to identify risks, seize opportunities, and formulate resilient policies.

Through a forward-looking perspective and systematic analysis, this report assists decision-makers in anticipating future challenges within a complex and volatile environment, providing decision support for Canada to build a sustainable and resilient development path.