Canada on the Eve of a Major Election: Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Politics: Background Setting
2. Economy: Current Status and Development
3. Foreign Relations and Policy
4. Relations with Multilateral Organizations
5. Relations with Third-Party Countries
6. The Liberal Party's Decade in Power
7. Overview of Major Political Parties and Their Election Platforms
8. Evolution of the Geopolitical Landscape (1945-2006)
9. Continuity and Change in Foreign Policy Post-2006
10. Dynamics of Bilateral Relations with the United States
11. Development of Relations with the EU, China, and India
12. Policy and Stance Towards Russia and Ukraine

Document Introduction

This report is a thematic analysis by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) on the 2025 Canadian federal election, focusing on the geopolitical challenges and development dilemmas Canada faces at a critical political juncture. In January 2025, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Liberal Party leader under internal party pressure and low approval ratings. The new leader, Mark Carney, promptly announced an early election for April 28, marking a pivotal turning point for the Canadian Liberal Party's decade-long governance.

The report first outlines Canada's political landscape, focusing on analyzing the ideological positioning, core supporter base, and campaign policy proposals of the four major parties: the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, and the Bloc Québécois. It reconstructs the seat distribution and political landscape evolution across the three elections between 2015 and 2021, revealing the political maneuvering and divisions involved in sustaining the Liberal Party's minority government.

On the economic front, based on authoritative data from the World Bank, IMF, and others, the report systematically presents the development status of Canada as the world's tenth-largest economy: the service sector accounts for 73% of GDP, with four provinces including Ontario and Quebec contributing 87.5% of the total economic output. It also highlights multiple structural challenges such as inflation control, high housing prices, an aging population, and trade dependency on the United States. By tracing economic cycles since 2000, it analyzes the impact of and responses to the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and U.S. tariff policies on the Canadian economy.

The foreign policy section is a core highlight of the report. It traces Canada's post-World War II tradition of multilateralist diplomacy from a historical perspective, along with policy adjustments made by the Harper and Trudeau governments after 2006. It focuses on analyzing the dynamics of Canada's relations with key countries: the complex interplay with the United States regarding trade agreements (NAFTA/USMCA) and tariff disputes; the deep cooperation built with the European Union through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA); the tensions in relations with China and India due to human rights, security, and geopolitical factors; and its stance and aid measures regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The report concludes by pointing out that the core issues of the 2025 Canadian election are concentrated in four major areas: economic recovery, housing and healthcare, managing relations with the United States, and controlling separatist tendencies. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's hardline policy towards China and the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape, Canada's next government will face multiple tests in balancing alliance relations, safeguarding economic security, and addressing internal contradictions. Its policy choices will profoundly influence the future trajectory of the North American continent and transatlantic partnerships.