How to help the U.S. Air Force address the shortage of fighter pilots

Key Chapter Title List

1. Four Major Factors Leading to the Pilot Shortage
2. U.S. Air Force Efforts to Improve Pilot Retention Rates
3. Analysis of Retention Bonus Sufficiency: RAND Research Findings
4. U.S. Air Force Efforts to Improve Pilot Absorption Efficiency
5. Four Key Areas Where RAND Can Provide Assistance
6. Selected RAND Studies Related to U.S. Air Force Pilot Retention
7. Deliverables and Funding Channels for Collaboration with the RAND Project AIR FORCE

Document Introduction

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has long faced a pilot shortage. Despite implementing numerous countermeasures, a deficit of 1,848 pilots remained in Fiscal Year 2023. This issue is driven by four interconnected core factors: training burden, training capacity, absorption efficiency, and retention status. Among these, the challenges of retention and absorption within the fighter force have persisted for at least a decade, representing a critical entry point for addressing this complex problem.

The report begins by systematically reviewing the multiple initiatives the U.S. Air Force has taken to enhance pilot retention. Facing intense competition from major U.S. airlines, which hire over 12,000 pilots annually, the Air Force introduced the Experienced Aviator Retention Incentive (EARI), offering up to $50,000 per year. Simultaneously, it has worked to improve service quality and quality of life across multiple dimensions, including optimizing talent matching mechanisms, promoting the portability of spousal professional qualifications, adjusting deployment policies, and enhancing support measures for female aircrew.

Regarding absorption efficiency, the report identifies the limited availability of flight hours due to insufficient operational aircraft as the core bottleneck. This issue not only potentially affects pilots' Aviation Incentive Pay (AvIP) but also, through the irrational allocation of flight hours, impacts the training of new pilots. This, in turn, has an indirect negative effect on retention rates—after all, a passion for flying is a key motivator for pilots joining the Air Force.

Leveraging its deep expertise in military manpower and retention research, the RAND Corporation proposes a targeted solution framework. Through four key directions—research on optimizing the compensation system, exploring the relationship between family stability and career development, specialized surveys on spouse needs, and in-depth research on service and quality of life—RAND provides data support and policy recommendations for the U.S. Air Force. It is particularly noteworthy that RAND's 2016 research indicated that, even during periods of lower airline hiring, the annual bonus required to maintain target retention rates was $62,500 (approximately $80,563 in 2024 dollars). Given the current surge in airline hiring, this amount would need to be even higher.

The report also clarifies the specific modes of collaboration with Project AIR FORCE (PAF), including customized research deliverables, sponsor qualification requirements, and the operational mechanisms of two funding channels: central funding and sponsor funding. This provides the U.S. Air Force with a clear and actionable path to leverage external think-tank expertise in addressing the long-standing challenge of pilot shortage.