Assessment of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Status in 2023

Key Chapter Title List

1. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile and Deployment Status
2. Retired Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement Process and Challenges
3. Implementation Status of the New START Treaty
4. Nuclear Posture Review and Nuclear Modernization Plans
5. Nuclear Planning and Exercise Mechanisms
6. Land-based Ballistic Missile Forces
7. Nuclear-powered Ballistic Missile Submarine Forces
8. Strategic Bomber Forces
9. Status of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons
10. NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements and European Nuclear Posture

Document Introduction

Against the backdrop of profound evolution in the global nuclear landscape and intensifying strategic competition among major powers, the United States is advancing a large-scale modernization plan covering all nuclear delivery systems. The adjustments in the scale, structure, and deployment of its nuclear forces have profound implications for international strategic stability. This report, as a core achievement of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook series, was researched and written over several years by the Nuclear Information Project team of the Federation of American Scientists. It provides an authoritative panoramic assessment of the U.S. nuclear weapons system in 2024.

Core data from the report shows that the total U.S. nuclear stockpile in 2024 is approximately 5,044 warheads. This includes an active stockpile of 3,708 warheads (comprising 1,770 in a deployed status and 1,938 in a reserve status), with an additional 1,336 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement. Among the deployed warheads, 400 are fitted on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, 970 are deployed on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are stored at bomber bases in the continental United States, and 100 tactical nuclear bombs are deployed at European bases, forming the foundational architecture of the "triad" nuclear forces.

The report systematically analyzes the current status and modernization progress of each component of U.S. nuclear forces: On the land-based front, 400 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles are being gradually replaced by the Sentinel (LGM-35A) system, although the project faces cost overruns and schedule delays. On the sea-based front, 14 Ohio-class nuclear submarines are equipped with Trident II D5LE submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and the development of the next-generation Columbia-class nuclear submarine continues to advance. On the air-based front, B-52H and B-2A bombers undertake nuclear strike missions, while the B-21 Raider stealth bomber has completed its first test flight and is poised to enter the deployment phase.

In the realm of nuclear policy and arms control, the report details the core content of the Biden administration's 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, including adjustments such as canceling the nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) program and advancing the retirement of the B83-1 nuclear warhead. It also points out the impact of U.S. vacillation on nuclear transparency policies on international nuclear arms control mechanisms. The report further analyzes U.S.-NATO nuclear sharing arrangements, as well as deployment plans for new tactical nuclear warheads like the B61-12 in Europe and their impact on regional security dynamics.

Based on open-source data from the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Defense, and satellite imagery, the report comprehensively presents cost estimates for U.S. nuclear force modernization (projected to cost $1.2 to $1.7 trillion over the next thirty years), along with technical challenges and policy controversies. It provides a crucial reference for understanding the evolution of the global nuclear balance and the logic of strategic competition among major powers, holding significant academic and practical value for defense researchers, policymakers, and geopolitical analysts.