Trump's Tariff Policy: The Continuation of the Sino-US Trade War and Its Impact on the Global Economy

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. Trump's Specific Tariff Policies and Their Impact
3. Analysis of Trump's Trade Policies
4. Changes in Trump's Tariff Policies Towards Canada, Mexico, and China
5. The Impact of Trump's Policies on the Global Trade Landscape
6. Attitudes and Reactions of U.S. Allies

Document Introduction

On November 25, 2024, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% import tariff on China immediately after taking office on January 20, 2025. This policy continues the tough trade stance of the Trump era. Its potential impact quickly sparked widespread global attention and discussion, becoming a significant variable in reshaping international economic and trade relations.

The report first outlines the core content and implementation background of Trump's tariff policies, clarifying the specific targets and rate standards of the policies. Supported by data from authoritative institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the report quantitatively analyzes the historical impact and potential risks of such tariff policies: previous tariff policies have resulted in over $40 billion in additional costs for U.S. businesses, potential annual additional expenses for consumers reaching $69 billion, and a 1.5% decline in global trade volume (equivalent to 0.5% of global GDP).

In the in-depth policy analysis section, the report focuses on the shift in orientation of Trump's second-term tariff policies: unlike the 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs driven by economic demands to protect domestic industries and employment, the 2024 new policy is more politically motivated, directly targeting accusations related to drug and immigration issues with Canada and Mexico, and criticisms of anti-drug cooperation with China, highlighting the characteristic of using tariffs as a tool to achieve foreign policy and political objectives.

At the level of the global trade landscape, the report points out that high tariffs on Canada and Mexico could undermine the stability of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), leading to a 10% and 15% decline in their respective exports to the U.S., impacting the stability and efficiency of North American supply chains; new tariffs on China would further intensify U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially triggering a global supply chain restructuring. Furthermore, this policy could provoke retaliatory measures from trading partners, exacerbate global trade frictions, and challenge the multilateral trading system and global trade rules.

The reactions of U.S. allies are also a key focus of the report. As core economic partners of the U.S., Canada and Mexico have responded strongly to the tariff threats. The Canadian Prime Minister explicitly opposed the related tariff measures and warned of serious economic consequences, while the Mexican President emphasized that he would not yield to external pressure on immigration issues. To cope with the impact, both countries are seeking to strengthen cooperation with other trading partners to reduce their dependence on the U.S. market.

Through multi-dimensional data verification and policy logic deduction, this report comprehensively presents the implementation background, core content, underlying motivations, and global impact of Trump's tariff policies, providing an important reference for understanding the evolution of the current international economic and trade landscape and for policy formulation.