Analysis Report on the U.S. Navy's Fiscal Year Shipbuilding Plan

Key Chapter Title List

1. Navy's 381-Ship Fleet Construction Goal
2. 2025 Plan: Expanding the Fleet to 390 Combatant Ships
3. New Ship Construction Cost: Annual Scale of $35.8 Billion
4. Analysis of Total Shipbuilding Costs Compared to Historical Appropriations
5. Budget Growth Requirements for Fleet Operations and Maintenance
6. Phased Changes in Fleet Combat Capability
7. Capacity Enhancement Requirements for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base
8. Details of Ship Inventory and Procurement Plans
9. Specialized Planning for Combatant and Support Vessels
10. Development Concepts for Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles
11. Differences in Cost Estimates Between the Navy and the Congressional Budget Office
12. Implementation Plans for Specific Ship Programs (Aircraft Carriers, Submarines, Destroyers, etc.)

Document Introduction

As required by the U.S. Congress, the Department of Defense must submit an annual 30-year Navy fleet development plan, upon which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) conducts independent analysis and cost assessment. This report focuses on the Navy's shipbuilding plan for Fiscal Year 2025, providing objective and neutral professional analysis centered on four core issues: fleet size expansion, combat power structure optimization, budget investment, and industrial base support.

The core objective of the 2025 plan is to build a larger fleet with more distributed firepower. According to the plan, the number of combatant ships will gradually increase from the current 295 to 390 by 2054, exceeding the Navy's stated goal of 381 ships. However, the fleet size will experience a phased decline in the short term, reaching a low of 283 ships in 2027. Over the 30-year period, the Navy plans to procure 364 new ships, including 293 combatant ships and 71 logistics and support vessels, with a focus on increasing the proportion of next-generation and smaller ship procurements.

Regarding costs, CBO estimates the plan's average annual total shipbuilding cost over 30 years to be $40.1 billion (in 2024 dollars), which is 46% higher than the average appropriation level of the past five years and 17% higher than the Navy's own estimate. This includes an average annual new ship construction cost of $35.8 billion. Factoring in operations and maintenance, aircraft, and weapon procurement expenses, the Navy's total budget would need to grow from $255 billion in 2024 to $340 billion in 2054, an increase of one-third. The cost differences primarily stem from differing assumptions between the two entities regarding ship design, construction efficiency, and labor and material cost growth.

The evolution of combat power exhibits a "decline first, rise later" characteristic: fleet firepower will experience a phased decline over the next decade, gradually recovering after the 2030s as the fleet expands and achieves a wider distribution of firepower. The industrial base faces significant challenges, as ship construction tonnage over the next 30 years must substantially increase compared to the past decade, particularly requiring a significant boost in nuclear submarine production capacity. Simultaneously, issues such as shipyard labor shortages, single-source supply chains, and construction delays must be addressed.

The report also provides a detailed analysis of the procurement plans, cost estimates, and combat contributions of various ship types, including aircraft carriers, submarines, destroyers, and amphibious warfare ships. It explores the potential impact of the AUKUS security pact on attack submarine inventory, offering comprehensive decision-making reference material for Congress and relevant policy-making bodies.