Disruptive Civilian Technologies: Six Technologies Affecting U.S. Interests in the Coming Years

Key Chapter Title List

1. Disruptive Technology Screening Process
2. Biogerontology Technology
3. Energy Storage Materials
4. Biofuels and Bio-based Chemicals
5. Clean Coal Technology
6. Service Robotics
7. Internet of Things
8. Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States for Each Technology
9. Monitoring Indicators and Signals

Document Introduction

This report, funded by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and prepared by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence, aims to support the "Global Trends 2025" study. Its core mission is to identify six disruptive civilian and dual-use technologies that may significantly enhance or weaken U.S. national power (geopolitical, military, economic, social cohesion) over the next 15 years (until 2025).

The report identifies key technologies through a rigorous screening process: biogerontology technology, energy storage materials, biofuels and bio-based chemicals, clean coal technology, service robotics, and the Internet of Things. The screening process encompasses six core steps: knowledge base review, idea generation, cluster classification, technology description, criteria screening, priority ranking, and technology profile creation, ensuring the strategic relevance and potential disruptiveness of the selected technologies.

Each technology is analyzed in depth from two aspects: "Reasons for Disruption" and "Potential Impact on U.S. National Power." Biogerontology technology focuses on demographic changes and policy challenges brought by life extension and healthy aging; energy storage materials focus on their potential to reshape energy storage and distribution patterns and their potential to replace fossil fuels; biofuels and bio-based chemicals explore their near-term feasibility as alternatives to traditional fuels and petrochemical feedstocks and their value for energy security; clean coal technology analyzes its development prospects in a carbon-constrained environment and its impact on the energy market landscape; service robotics focuses on their expanding applications in civilian and defense sectors and their impact on the labor market; the Internet of Things is evaluated around the dual effects of efficiency gains and security risks brought by the interconnection of everything.

The report constructs four future scenarios for each technology based on key uncertainty axes, clearly presenting opportunities and threats under different development paths. For example, scenarios for biogerontology technology revolve around "Technology Commercialization Process" and "Global Policy and Funding Support," while scenarios for energy storage materials are built on "Materials Science Development" and "National Energy Policy Choices." Simultaneously, the report defines core monitoring indicators for each technology, providing an actionable analytical framework for tracking technological development dynamics and predicting impact trends.

The core value of this report lies in providing policymakers, defense researchers, and geopolitical analysts with a forward-looking tool for assessing technological impacts. While its analytical conclusions do not represent the official position of the U.S. government, it offers a rigorous academic perspective and an empirical foundation for understanding the interaction between technological change and national interests.