U.S. Tariff Response: The Global Impact of Trump’s "Reciprocal" Tariffs

Key Chapter Title List

1. Core Provisions of the U.S. "Reciprocal" Tariff Policy
2. Classification of Applicable Tariff Rates by Country
3. Immediate Market Reaction to the Tariff Policy
4. Responses and Statements from Asian Countries
5. Policy Responses and Countermeasure Considerations in Europe
6. Brazil's Potential Gains in the Global Trade Landscape
7. U.S. Domestic Political Reaction and Congressional Stance
8. Impact and Effects of Tariffs on the Technology Sector
9. Explanation of Tariff-Exempted Product Categories
10. Path and Dilemma for Countries to Circumvent Tariffs

Document Introduction

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump unveiled the highly anticipated "reciprocal" tariff policy. Its scope and intensity exceeded most analysts' expectations, marking a new phase in U.S. trade policy. The core of this policy includes immediately imposing a uniform 10% tariff on all countries, with plans to levy personalized reciprocal tariffs on April 9 targeting countries with "non-tariff trade barriers." These tariffs will remain in effect until the Trump administration determines that the threats posed by trade deficits and non-reciprocal treatment are resolved or mitigated.

The policy clarifies a differentiated tariff rate system: major trading partners like China, Vietnam, and Thailand face customized rates ranging from 24% to 54%; countries such as the United Kingdom, Australia, and Brazil maintain the 10% baseline rate; while Canada and Mexico are subject to tiered rates of 0%, 10%, or 25% based on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Simultaneously, critical goods like steel, aluminum, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and scarce U.S. minerals are included on the tariff exemption list.

In terms of immediate impact, the average U.S. import tariff level has surged from 2.5% in 2024 to approximately 22%, nearing 1910 levels. This is projected to increase the U.S. annual inflation rate by 2.3 percentage points, raising average annual household expenditures by about $3,800. Global financial markets reacted strongly: U.S. stock futures fell over 2.5% after hours, with Nasdaq futures dropping 4.6%. Asian and European stock markets also experienced significant declines, reflecting widespread market concern over the policy-induced global trade turmoil.

At the international level, reactions from various countries show significant divergence. Although many Asian nations are severely impacted, retaliatory measures remain unclear. The European Union is considering deploying its anti-coercion instrument, contemplating countermeasures against U.S. tech giants and financial institutions. Leaders from Germany, France, Spain, and other countries have strongly criticized the U.S. protectionist policy. China's Ministry of Commerce demanded the U.S. revoke the unilateral tariffs while responding through capital controls, currency adjustments, and other means. Combined with previous tariffs, the average duty rate on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will reach 76%. Brazil, leveraging its advantage in bulk commodity exports to China, emerges as a potential beneficiary of the shifts in the global trade landscape.

On the U.S. domestic political front, some Republican senators joined with Democrats to introduce a resolution challenging the national security justification for the tariffs on Canada. Republicans from agricultural states expressed concerns about the tariffs' impact. However, the related resolution is expected to face obstacles in the House of Representatives. The technology sector, with its supply chains heavily reliant on Asian markets, faces immense uncertainty. Companies like Apple and Amazon have intensified lobbying efforts seeking exemptions.

The report points out that this tariff policy is not a traditional negotiation tool. The Trump administration has positioned it as a "national emergency" response measure. The lack of clear paths for tariff exemptions for countries may lead to prolonged turbulence in the global trading system, with multiple economies facing recession risks. Its profound impact on global supply chains, geopolitical relations, and international trade rules warrants continued attention.