Overview of Israel's Attack on Iran and the Reactions from Both Sides

Key Chapter Title List

1. Overview
2. Timeline of Developments (Table and Subsequent Updates)
3. International Reactions
4. Issue Assessment (Timing of the Attack, Iran's Response, Israeli (U.S.) Objectives)
5. Possible War Scenarios (Scenario One to Scenario Four)
6. Impact
7. Recommendations

Document Introduction

This report was released in June 2025 by the Research and Analysis Department of IPRI (Islamabad Policy Research Institute). It aims to provide real-time tracking and in-depth analysis of the large-scale surprise attack launched by Israel against Iran on the 13th of that month and its subsequent escalation. The report's core focus is on the background, specific progression, and the military and political reactions of both sides regarding this operation, codenamed "Rising Lion." Building on this, it assesses the strategic motivations, military effectiveness, and potential regional and international impacts of the conflict.

The report first details the key events of the first four days of the conflict (June 13-16) in chronological order. Israel's initial strike aimed to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, military targets, and key personnel including senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, with the action suspected to have been supported by internal intelligence. Iran retaliated with Operation "True Promise III," launching a large number of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, most of which were reportedly intercepted. Subsequently, Israel expanded its strikes to include economic targets such as Iran's South Pars oil field. Both sides attacked each other's capitals and other important cities, indicating a spiral of escalation in the conflict.

In the assessment section, the report delves into the possible reasons for Israel's choice of timing for the attack, pointing out that its logic of a "preventive strike" may be based on intelligence suggesting Iran was nearing the threshold for weapons-grade uranium enrichment. The report compares the military performance of both sides, concluding that Iran's air defense system failed to effectively intercept Israeli airstrikes. While Iran's retaliatory missile attacks caused panic and some casualties among Israeli civilians, they did not inflict major strategic damage, highlighting the asymmetry in military technology between the two sides, particularly in multi-layered air defense systems. The report further speculates on the strategic objectives of Israel (and the U.S. behind it), including creating conditions for potential regime change and advancing the "Greater Israel" agenda to force more Arab countries to recognize Israel.

Based on the current situation, the report systematically deduces four possible war development scenarios: from a prolonged stalemate with Iran potentially blockading the Strait of Hormuz, to Iran being forced to compromise due to economic and military damage, to the conflict becoming internationalized with major powers like China and Russia intervening to pressure a ceasefire, and finally to the most extreme scenario of internal collapse and regime change in Iran. The report posits that, given Russia and China's preoccupation with their own geopolitical affairs and the Muslim world's lack of will and capability to change the situation, the first two scenarios (prolonged conflict or Iran being forced to concede) are more likely.

Finally, the report specifically explores the potential impact and policy implications of this conflict for Pakistan. As a neighbor of Iran, Pakistan, while expressing diplomatic solidarity and sovereign support, may face dual challenges from Iran seeking support and the U.S. exerting pressure. Border security, informal oil trade, and separatist activities within Pakistan could intensify as a result. Therefore, the report recommends that Pakistan needs to closely consult with China to formulate a comprehensive strategy. While adhering to the principles of international law and maintaining diplomatic support for Iran, Pakistan should strengthen border controls and assess related risks. This report provides a professional and timely analytical framework for understanding the immediate dynamics, strategic logic, and wide-ranging chain reactions of this sudden regional conflict.