Iran Truth: Emergency Situation Report on Israel-Iran Conflict

Key Chapter Title List

1. Conflict Escalation: From Shadow War to Open Confrontation
2. The U.S. Position: The Trump Administration's Non-Interventionist Posture and Internal Pressure
3. The Fordow Facility: A Strategic Conundrum and the Ultimate Military Option
4. The Diplomatic Path: The Possibility and Obstacles of Omani Negotiations
5. Israel's Military Achievements: Elimination of Nuclear Scientists and Infrastructure Strikes
6. Damage Assessment: Setbacks to Iran's Nuclear Program and Residual Risks
7. Revealing Intelligence Operations: Israel's Precision Strikes and Coordinated Deception
8. Iran's Retaliation and Strategic Intent: From Rhetoric to Concrete Plans for Destruction
9. The Ballistic Missile Threat: An Unchecked Non-Nuclear Destructive Capability
10. The Exit Strategy Dilemma: Avoiding a "Gaza Scenario" Replay in the Middle East
11. Leadership Targeting: Deterrence Against Khamenei and Potential Objectives
12. Regional Proxy Forces: The Undiscussed Escalation Risk

Document Introduction

This report is an emergency situation assessment compiled based on the content of an in-depth situation seminar titled "The Truth About Iran" held on June 15, 2025. The report focuses on the new phase of open military confrontation between Israel and Iran, which has abruptly escalated from a long-term "shadow war." The core context is the direct strikes by the Israeli Air Force against the senior command system of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nuclear weapons scientists, and nuclear and security infrastructure, as well as Iran's response of directly attacking densely populated areas in Israel with ballistic missiles. The report clearly states that this confrontation marks a shift in the nature of the regional conflict and has placed the United States at a critical decision point regarding whether to conduct military intervention.

The structure of the report unfolds along two main lines: U.S. diplomatic and military choices, and Israel's military actions and strategic calculations. Regarding the United States, it provides a detailed analysis of the Trump administration's ostensibly "non-interventionist" public stance and its genuine dilemma under pressure from regional allies and domestic politics, particularly the intense internal debate over whether to deploy B-2 bombers and Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to destroy Iran's deeply buried Fordow uranium enrichment facility. The report also explores the slim possibility of restarting diplomatic negotiations through the Omani channel, pointing out that the original negotiation framework has become obsolete due to the destruction of Iran's above-ground nuclear facilities, and any new agreement would likely restrict Iran's uranium enrichment activities to an extremely low, "symbolic" level.

Regarding Israel, the report provides an in-depth assessment of the tactical and strategic outcomes achieved by its military operations. Key points include the intelligence agency-led, precision elimination operations targeting Iran's top nuclear weapons scientists, an action believed to have delayed Iran's nuclear weapons program by at least a year and a half. The report also objectively analyzes the limitations of these operations: Israel lacks the capability to effectively destroy the Fordow facility alone, and its efforts to curb Iran's vast ballistic missile stockpile and expansion plans have had limited effect. These missiles are seen as a non-nuclear strategic threat capable of inflicting devastating damage on Israel even without nuclear warheads.

Through dialogues with participating journalists, the report reveals multiple motivations for the escalation of the conflict: Iran's Supreme Leader may have given the green light for nuclear weaponization plans; Iran has formulated specific, destructive joint attack plans targeting Israel; and its awareness of vulnerabilities in Israel's missile defense systems. Ultimately, the report directs focus to the imminent strategic decision: whether to rely on an ultimate U.S. military strike to "finish the job" or to seek a sustainable "exit strategy" involving regional powers to avoid being drawn into an endless war of attrition. The report warns of the severe risk of further escalation, including the involvement of Iranian proxy forces and strikes targeting the leadership of both sides, highlighting the high complexity and danger of the current Middle East situation.