Marubeni Washington Report: Analysis of Trump's Middle East Strategy and Iran Policy

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Rethinking the "America First" Foreign Policy: How Trump Shaped a New Order in the Middle East
2. Definitive Exemption: The Strategic Flexibility and Political Resilience of Trump's Policies
3. A Defining Moment: Discarding the "Palestinian Veto" and Building an Anti-Iran Coalition
4. The Fundamental Shift of the Abraham Accords: An Analysis of Three Reasons
5. Continuity and Consistency in Trump's Middle East Strategy: From Biden to a Potential Second Trump Term
6. The Path Forward: Trump's Three Interconnected Goals
7. Ending the Gaza War
8. Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
9. Israel-Saudi Arabia Normalization
10. The Alliance Paradox: The Contradiction Between Strengthening Allies and Avoiding Entanglement in Conflict
11. Moral Hazard and Strategic Dilemma: The Potential Cost of Empowering Allies
12. The Final Assessment of Trump's Middle East Legacy: Managing Adversaries and Constraining Allies

Document Introduction

This report aims to systematically analyze the strategic logic and implementation path of former President and potential second-term President Donald Trump's policies in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran. The report does not attempt to predict the future trajectory of this turbulent region but focuses on interpreting Trump's own perception of regional dynamics and the strategic opportunities he may identify and exploit. Based on an analysis of Trump's first-term policies, recent crisis responses (such as strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities), and regional alliance realignments, the study reveals the potential coherent strategic core beneath his seemingly flexible and variable style.

The report begins by pointing out that Trump's Middle East policy has always been dynamically adjusted around a core objective: containing Iran while minimizing direct U.S. military intervention. This flexible strategy facilitated the historic Abraham Accords and continues to guide his Iran policy. By removing the Palestinian issue as a precondition from the regional agenda, Trump successfully shifted the focus to Iran containment, thereby laying the groundwork for building an anti-Iran coalition centered on Israel and certain Arab states. Even amidst the deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, this Arab-Israeli united front persists, creating a historic opportunity to end the Gaza war, reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, and achieve Saudi-Israeli normalization.

The report delves into Trump's unique "definitive exemption," which is his political ability to reshape policies or even his own positions based on immediate needs without losing core support. This is particularly evident in foreign policy, freeing him from the constraints of traditional ideological consistency. The recent Iran crisis serves as an example: after authorizing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to satisfy hawkish demands, Trump quickly pivoted to facilitating an Israeli-Iranian ceasefire, meeting the expectations of the restraint camp. This logic of using overwhelming force as a diplomatic tool rather than an ultimate goal runs through a series of his actions, from the assassination of Soleimani to the recent strikes on nuclear facilities, aiming to create negotiating leverage rather than start a war.

The Abraham Accords are seen as a key achievement of Trump's Middle East strategy, fundamentally altering regional politics in three ways: severing the traditional link between Palestinian statehood and Arab-Israeli relations; redirecting regional priorities from the Arab-Israeli conflict to Iran containment; and rebuilding U.S. credibility as an indispensable "deal-maker" in Middle Eastern affairs. This strategy demonstrated remarkable continuity during the Biden administration, which also pursued the "ultimate prize" of Saudi-Israeli normalization. This attests to the resilience of its strategic logic and suggests that the Hamas October 7th attack may have aimed to prevent the formation of this alliance.

Currently, Trump's pressure campaign has created a unique strategic moment. The report notes that Trump could seize this opportunity to pursue three mutually reinforcing goals: ending the Gaza war, reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, and achieving Saudi-Israeli normalization. However, his strategy contains a fundamental contradiction, namely the "alliance paradox": empowering allies (such as Israel, Saudi Arabia) to reduce the U.S. military burden, whose unilateral actions could drag the United States into the very open-ended conflicts it promises to avoid. This moral hazard means that Trump's Middle East legacy will ultimately depend not only on his management of adversaries but also on his ability to constrain powerful allies—whose independent decisions could transform him from a "war-ender" to a "war-starter."

This report is based on an analysis of publicly available information from the Marubeni Washington Office. It aims to provide professional readers with an in-depth, original interpretation of the strategic logic behind Trump's Middle East policies, emphasizing the internal consistency of his policies, implementation risks, and long-term geopolitical impact. The report's content does not constitute any prediction or action recommendation and is solely an analytical assessment of existing policy dynamics.