The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Middle East Security: Threat Perceptions and Proliferation

Key Chapter Title List

1. Global and Regional Context
2. Global Context
3. Regional Context
4. Impact of Evolving Threat Perceptions on the Region
5. Exacerbating Insecurity and Arms Race, Leading to Further Regional Imbalance
6. Intensifying Potential "Capability Race"
7. Impact on Regional WMD Proliferation and Arms Control Processes
8. Impact on the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone
9. Recommendations and Conclusion

Document Introduction

Against the backdrop of international relations entering a new era of intensified geopolitical competition, emerging and disruptive technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), are becoming key variables affecting global security and stability. This report, published by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), aims to delve into the potential impact of AI on security in the Middle East, threat perceptions, the risk of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) proliferation, and the initiative to establish a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone (ME WMDFZ). The report points out that while the impact of AI on global security has been widely discussed, its specific effects on the Middle East—a region long plagued by conflict, external intervention, and a lack of regional security architecture—have not been sufficiently assessed.

The report begins its analysis within a dual global and regional context. At the global level, the unipolar structure of the post-Cold War era has ended, geopolitical competition has intensified, multilateralism and arms control cooperation have waned, and the salience of WMD has risen again. AI, as a "force multiplier," when combined with advanced weapons such as WMD, cyber weapons, and hypersonic missiles, and through its applications in areas like targeting, command and control, early warning, and surveillance, exacerbates strategic complexity and uncertainty. At the regional level, while Middle Eastern countries have shown some diplomatic autonomy (e.g., Saudi-Iranian détente), they remain deeply mired in persistent conflict and insecurity. The ME WMDFZ process has stalled, and norms related to WMD show signs of erosion. Notably, countries such as Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have already deployed or publicly announced the development of AI capabilities in military operations or defense industries, although their military doctrines have not fundamentally changed as a result.

The core section of the report systematically analyzes the multi-dimensional impact of AI on regional security. First, the military application of AI may exacerbate regional insecurity, triggering a new arms race or "arms race dynamics." Compared to past conventional or unconventional arms races, the technological, industrial, and financial barriers to entry for military AI applications are relatively lower, and there is a lack of international transfer control mechanisms similar to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This could lead to a more rapid proliferation of AI capabilities, worsening the power imbalance among regional states. Second, even if AI is not weaponized, competition among countries in the civilian AI domain could trigger a "latent capability race" or "dual-use AI race," creating security dynamics akin to those of a nuclear fuel cycle race, blurring the lines between civilian and military applications, and giving rise to new security challenges. The report analyzes the different motivations, pathways, and capability foundations for AI development in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran as examples.

Third, the impact of AI on WMD proliferation and arms control processes is dual-faceted. On one hand, AI may stimulate existing or potential proliferators to redouble their efforts to acquire WMD to maintain a certain balance of power with AI-enabled military powers; AI could also lower the technical difficulty, cost, and time required for WMD (especially biological weapons) research and development. On the other hand, AI-enabled high-precision conventional weapon systems (such as drones, hypersonic missiles) may reduce the utility of WMD, thereby diminishing the motivation for proliferation. Simultaneously, AI technology also provides new tools for non-proliferation and arms control, such as automating the analysis of satellite imagery, verifying compliance data, and modeling proliferation networks, thereby enhancing detection, verification, and compliance capabilities.

Fourth, regarding the impact of AI on the ME WMDFZ initiative, the report argues that while AI itself should not be included in the scope of negotiations for the zone, its development undoubtedly adds complexity to the issue. It remains uncertain whether AI will politically increase the urgency of advancing the ME WMDFZ; technical factors may have a less direct impact than political ones. The report suggests that if AI needs to be discussed, it should be done through an independent process rather than interfering with ME WMDFZ negotiations. At the same time, the technical benefits of AI in arms control could provide important tools for the future drafting, implementation, and verification of a ME WMDFZ treaty, but its application also faces challenges such as transparency and credibility.

Finally, the report offers limited recommendations. Given the lack of clear AI policy positions and related capabilities in the region, the report suggests that countries consider developing national AI strategies, particularly in the security and defense sectors, to clarify priorities and serve as confidence-building measures. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for capacity building at the national level, including raising awareness, familiarizing with terminology, and conducting functional area training, to lay the groundwork for potential future participation in regional or international discussions on AI issues. The report concludes that AI is likely to exacerbate instability in the Middle East, but its ultimate impact depends on the technology's own development trajectory and whether the international community can reach a consensus on regulating AI. Although there are currently few proposals in the international arms control community on how to manage AI, the possibility of the Middle East region itself taking action should not be entirely ruled out.