Gaza's Perspective on the Year-long War and the Future of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Wartime Survey: The Demands of Gaza's Population
2. What is "Peace"? – Gaza Residents' Views on Conflict Resolution
3. Leadership Crisis: Hamas and the Vacuum of Political Representation in Gaza
4. Devoted Actors and Willingness to Fight: The Interaction of Identity Fusion and Sacred Values
5. Why Does the War Continue? – The Possibility and Limits of Value Compromise
6. Possible Paths to Peace: Psychological Mechanisms of Enemy Humanization and Trust Building
7. Conclusion: The Limits of Realism – The Central Role of Sacred Values in Conflict Resolution
8. Postscript: The Dialectical Relationship Between Hamas and the Likud – A Brief History of Spoilers

Document Introduction

This report is based on a representative public opinion survey conducted in the Gaza Strip in January 2025, aiming to deeply understand the views of Gaza's residents on the ongoing 2023-2025 war and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The study was designed by Artis International and the Changing Character of War Centre at the University of Oxford, and implemented by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, completing 500 face-to-face interviews. The survey not only focuses on political attitudes but also emphasizes analyzing the psychosocial components behind the "willingness to fight," including the complex interplay between identity fusion, sacred values, and the willingness to sacrifice.

The core findings of the report reveal the contradictory state of Gaza society after experiencing months of "total war." Although public support for Hamas has significantly declined from its initial high point at the war's start to about 20%, support for other political alternatives is even lower, allowing Hamas to still fill the political representation vacuum and maintain significant influence. More importantly, the war has not softened the political goals of Gaza's residents but has instead strengthened their maximalist demands: nearly half of the respondents (47%) favor the dissolution of Israel, only 48% support a two-state solution, and among them, only a minority support a solution based on the 1967 borders. Simultaneously, Gaza's residents show a strong and enduring commitment to core values such as national and religious identity and attachment to the land. These values are often perceived as "sacred" and non-negotiable, and significantly predict their unwillingness to coexist peacefully with Israel.

Using the frameworks of "identity fusion" and "sacred values," the study identifies a group constituting about 20% of the population as "devoted actors." This segment views Palestine as central to their self-identity and holds Sharia law as a sacred value. They exhibit the highest willingness to make significant sacrifices (including fighting and dying) for these values. In contrast, the report also explores potential psychological pathways to peace: data shows that about 10% of Gaza's residents can, to some extent, "humanize" Israelis. This humanization positively predicts their willingness to make costly sacrifices for peace through mediating pathways such as increasing trust in Israelis, enhancing willingness for positive interaction, and sanctifying "peace" itself.

The report concludes by critiquing the limitations of purely "realist" bargaining theories in international relations when dealing with such conflicts. When a conflict involves values perceived as sacred and indivisible, relying solely on material power balances and rational compromise makes it difficult to achieve a sustainable peace agreement. The study points out that any viable peace process must, at least in some mutually tolerable way, address and respect the core value demands of the conflicting parties, even if through symbolic gestures or creative conceptual reframing. Furthermore, by reviewing the historical interactions between Hamas and Israel's Likud party, the report reveals how their roles as "spoilers of peace" have mutually reinforced each other and hindered the emergence of political solutions. This research provides policymakers, military analysts, and conflict researchers with evidence-based, profound insights, emphasizing that psychosocial dimension analysis is as crucial as material power calculations in highly value-driven protracted conflicts.