Middle East Reconstruction Project: Regional Situation, Conflicts, and Future Prospects

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Introduction
2. The Middle East in 2024: The Year Red Lines Were Obliterated
3. Gaza-Israel and the Uncertainty of Ceasefire
4. Other War Fronts: Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen
5. The Re-emergence of the "New Middle East"
6. Historical Precedents of the "New Middle East" Concept
7. The Middle East in 2025: Unknowns Under Regional and Global Shocks
8. The Axis of Resistance: Badly Battered, But Not Defeated
9. Post-Assad Syria: Daunting Challenges and Cautious Hope
10. Trump Returns to a Transformed Middle East
11. Israel and Palestine: From the Ruins of Gaza to the West Bank
12. Israel's Internal Dynamics in the Post-Netanyahu Era
13. Conclusion

Document Overview

This analytical report is part of the "Strategic Vision 2025" series, published in March 2025. It aims to systematically examine the profound and cascading restructuring process the Middle East has undergone since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 (10/7). The report posits that the region is in a new cycle centered on major conflicts, power realignments, and alliance adjustments, where several traditional red lines have been breached. These include the first direct attacks launched from their respective territories by Iran and Israel, Israel's severe blows to the military structures of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the unexpected collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Collectively, these events have led to a decline in Iranian influence and the weakening of the "Axis of Resistance." Concurrently, Donald Trump's return to the White House signals a shift in U.S. Middle East policy towards a more transactional and interventionist approach, further unsettling the regional chessboard.

The main body of the report conducts an in-depth analysis centered on multiple conflict fronts and geopolitical sectors. First, it meticulously traces the devastating consequences of the Gaza war and the resulting humanitarian catastrophe, exploring the complex dynamics and future challenges behind the fragile ceasefire agreement reached in early 2025. Second, the report expands its view to the "multi-front war" scenarios in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iran. It analyzes the strategic significance of the shift from proxy conflict to limited direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, as well as the structural blow dealt to the "Axis of Resistance" by the "decapitation" of Hezbollah's leadership and the change of regime in Syria.

The report critically reviews the historical emergence and disillusionment of several so-called "New Middle East" concepts, including the Oslo Accords, the Iraq War, the Arab Spring, and the Trump-promoted Abraham Accords. It points out that these transformation attempts, based on one-sided agendas, often overlooked the complex dynamics where regional actions inevitably provoke reactions. Currently, despite Israel's significant tactical achievements on the battlefield, equating this with the realization of a durable, stable, and peaceful "New Middle East" order is premature and fraught with risk.

Looking towards 2025, the report focuses on several core unknowns: Iran's potential strategic choices after suffering major setbacks (rebuilding the axis, direct sabotage, turning to isolation, or seeking compromise); the daunting task of national reconstruction and the urgency of lifting international sanctions in post-Assad Syria; the policies of Trump's second term, particularly whether his unconditional support for Israel might shift towards a more transactional posture to facilitate a larger deal including Saudi Arabia, and the risk of him restarting "maximum pressure" against Iran or even triggering military conflict. Furthermore, the report also examines Israel's internal political polarization, escalating violence from West Bank settlement expansion, and the damage to Israel's international image from legal proceedings initiated by the international community.

This report is based on publicly available information, official data, academic research, and media reports. It cites analyses from sources including *The Lancet*, United Nations agencies, International Court of Justice documents, and numerous regional studies scholars, striving to provide professional readers with a rigorous, multi-dimensional picture of the current upheavals and future trajectory of the Middle East. The report ultimately emphasizes that the Middle East in 2025 will continue its restructuring process, potentially becoming more turbulent under Trump's new era. Regional stability will depend on how the post-war arrangements for Gaza, the reconstruction of Syria, stability on the Lebanon-Israel border are handled, and how to deal with an Iran whose power is diminished but not extinguished, along with its residual resistance network.