Trump's visit to Gulf countries: Is it more than just superficial?

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction: The Two Pillars of Gulf Leadership's Response to Trump
2. Wielding the Economic Carrot (with Strings Attached)
3. The Expectations of the Largest Actors: Saudi Arabia and the UAE
4. Regional Stability in Sight
5. Familiarity with the Strongman Dealmaker
6. Conclusion: Balancing Between Leverage and Access

Document Introduction

This report, authored by Clemens Chai, a researcher at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute, aims to provide an in-depth analysis of then-US President Donald Trump's visit to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in the early stages of his second term in 2025. This visit not only replicated his choice of first foreign trip during his first term but also extended to other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, highlighting the central position of the Gulf region in the Trump administration's foreign policy. The report focuses on the substantive meaning of this visit beyond ceremonial pomp, exploring the dynamics of US-Gulf relations under the intertwining of economic deals, strategic adjustments, and regional security issues.

The report points out that the personalized ruling model of the Gulf monarchies resonates with Trump's operating style, providing a unique basis for their interaction. Simultaneously, Gulf countries skillfully employ economic diplomacy to respond to the "America First" trade policy and even cater to Trump's personal preferences, thereby gaining a degree of policy advantage in negotiations. In the lead-up to and during the visit, a series of economic deals emerged intensively, from the Qatari Diar and Trump Organization's golf resort project, to Qatar Airways' potential purchase of Boeing wide-body aircraft, and Kuwait's approval for Patriot missile systems. These are all seen as strategies to cater to American trade demands in exchange for political influence. Although the US is not the primary export market for Gulf countries, the new tariff policies still bring inflationary spillover effects and market volatility, forcing Gulf states to seek barter-style interest exchanges in meetings and strive to maintain fiscal balance against the backdrop of falling oil prices.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seen as the "largest actors" in relations with the US. The UAE actively connects with the American tech industry through massive investment frameworks in areas like artificial intelligence, while Saudi Arabia significantly increases its holdings of US assets and invests in key technology companies through its sovereign wealth fund, demonstrating a strategic judgment that views the US as an irreplaceable center for innovation and finance. However, the report also notes that Gulf countries will ultimately face pressure to make "strategic choices" between China and the US in areas involving national security (such as technology), testing their long-held hedging strategy.

Regional stability is the deep-seated concern hidden behind a series of deals. Gulf countries have enhanced their diplomatic status and utility to Washington through their mediating roles in issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. US-Gulf talks are expected to focus on two major issues: first, the direction of ongoing US-Iran negotiations and their impact on Iran's nuclear program and Gulf security. Gulf countries hope to limit Iran's path to nuclear weapons while leaving it some breathing room, and worry that Trump's military threats and provocative rhetoric could undermine the existing détente. Second, the post-war Gaza reconstruction plan. Gulf countries have varying relationships with Israel and Palestinian entities internally, but they generally share concerns about Israel's unchecked military power and Hamas's role in reconstruction. Any further steps towards normalization of relations with Israel require careful weighing of regional balance and public sentiment.

The report concludes by analyzing the Gulf leadership's confidence and reservations about dealing with Trump, the "strongman dealmaker." They appreciate his ability to pressure opponents but also harbor doubts about his "peace through strength" policy and hope for clear security guarantees. The key lies in Gulf countries attempting to convey to the US a regional reconciliation formula that should not push Iran into a corner, and seeking leverage in the grey area between the US demand for Iran's complete nuclear abandonment and Iran's insistence on uranium enrichment activities. Although Gulf countries may leverage Trump's political need to shape his image as a "deal-maker" to enhance their own political capital, achieving a breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian issue still faces many obstacles. A potential US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, not predicated on normalization with Israel, may become the most significant achievement of this visit.

Based on public statements, government documents, news reports, and expert analysis, this report provides a timely and in-depth professional assessment for understanding the economic and strategic logic of US-Gulf relations in the early stages of Trump's second term.