Analysis of the Urgency for Indonesia to Follow Up on the Purchase of U.S. Fighter Jets

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. Indonesian Government Fighter Jet Procurement Since 2022
3. The Urgency of Following Through on F-15EX Procurement
4. Conclusion
5. References

Document Introduction

This report, authored by a Senior Legislative Analyst for Politics, Law, Security, and Human Rights at the Parliamentary Analysis Center, an expert body of the House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia, aims to conduct a strategic urgency assessment of the Indonesian Ministry of Defense's policy recommendation to follow through on the purchase of American F-15EX fighter jets. The report is grounded in the specific policy environment of early 2025, a time when the Indonesian government is implementing a cross-ministerial budget efficiency policy based on Presidential Instruction No. 1 of 2025, and the Ministry of Defense itself has seen its budget cut by IDR 26.9 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year. Against this backdrop, the decision for a major defense procurement requires weighing multiple strategic, economic, and procedural factors.

The report first outlines the current state of Indonesia's air power and recent procurement efforts. Although Indonesia's overall air power leads in Southeast Asia, its number of fighter jets (41) ranks 48th globally, lagging behind regional countries like Singapore and Vietnam. To achieve the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) target by 2024, the government has accelerated the replacement of its aging fleet, with aircraft aged 20-30 years, since 2022. Measures include signing an agreement with France for 42 Rafale fighter jets, exploring the possibility of Su-35 procurement with Russia, and signing a Memorandum of Understanding with American company Boeing in 2023 for the purchase of up to 24 F-15EX jets. The report notes that Boeing is actively urging Indonesia to finalize the procurement and has committed to fulfilling an 85% local content and offset obligation, involving supply chains, training, maintenance, and other aspects.

The core section of the report delves into an analysis of the "urgency" of following through on the F-15EX procurement. This urgency stems not only from military modernization needs and the reality of limited production slots (as many countries have placed orders) but is also examined within the context of complex geopolitical and economic dynamics. The report cites expert opinions suggesting that this procurement could serve as a "negotiation tool" for Indonesia in response to the Trump administration's proposed imposition of a 32% import tariff on Indonesian goods. Indonesia has a significant trade surplus with the United States (reaching USD 18 billion in 2024), and key export industries such as textiles, footwear, and palm oil are vulnerable to tariff impacts. Therefore, advancing the F-15EX procurement could become part of efforts to alleviate trade pressure and conduct defensive diplomacy. Simultaneously, the report also warns that the government needs to formulate domestic policies to mitigate potential chain economic effects, such as layoffs in MSMEs and export-oriented enterprises, that could result from U.S. tariffs.

Finally, the report emphasizes the statutory decision-making process for defense procurement. According to Article 43, Paragraph (4) of Law No. 16 of 2012 on the Defense Industry, the procurement of defense products requires consultation with the First Committee of the House of Representatives (DPR), which has the authority to provide considerations on procurement plans that align with national strategic interests and foreign policy. The report recalls the context in which First Committee members had already raised questions when the MoU was signed in 2023. Therefore, it recommends that the First Committee, in exercising its oversight function, should remind the Ministry of Defense to engage in joint discussions regarding the follow-up procurement plan for the F-15EX. Overall, the report is based on public government statements, industry analyses, and media reports, providing a multi-dimensional professional analytical framework for understanding Indonesia's high-end defense equipment procurement decisions amidst intertwined constraints of budget, strategic autonomy, industrial cooperation, and external economic pressures.