Japanese Self-Defense Force Personnel Bases in an Era of Population Decline: Promoting Labor-Saving and Unmanned Capabilities in the Air Self-Defense Force

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Mission Expansion of the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Air Self-Defense Force
2. Human Resources and Future Structural Challenges
3. Force Restructuring Under Demographic Constraints: Lessons from Other Nations
4. Why Unmanned Systems Matter: Tactical Effects and Strategic Utility in Modern Warfare
5. Redesigning Personnel Strength Through Labor-Saving and Unmanned Capabilities
6. Optimizing Manned Aircraft Numbers Through a Unmanned System-Centric Force Structure
7. Streamlining and Optimizing Command Structures
8. Multi-Skilling of Personnel
9. Strengthening Base Defense Functions Through Advanced Technology
10. Optimizing Trainer Aircraft Numbers Through Simulation-Driven Reform
11. Conclusion

Document Overview

This report, published by the Brookings Institution, aims to explore how the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), particularly the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), can ensure the long-term sustainability of its defense capabilities under the dual pressures of an irreversible demographic decline and an increasingly severe security environment. The report's core argument is that Japan's traditional defense model, which relies heavily on human resources, has encountered a structural bottleneck. It is imperative to elevate the development of "labor-saving" and "unmanned" capabilities to the level of national strategy, undertaking a fundamental restructuring encompassing equipment, organization, and operational concepts.

The report first provides a detailed analysis of the human resource crisis facing the JSDF. Japan's population of youth aged 18-26 has sharply declined from approximately 17.4 million in 1994 to about 10.2 million in 2024, and is projected to further decrease to around 7.1 million by 2044. Correspondingly, the actual strength of the Self-Defense Forces has long failed to meet the legally mandated personnel quotas. As of March 2025, the overall fulfillment rate was about 89.1%, with the rate for junior non-commissioned officers (NCOs) being only 60.7%. Concurrently, recruitment difficulties coexist with rising mid-career attrition rates. Although the Ministry of Defense has implemented measures such as raising salaries and expanding the roles of women and reservists, the report points out that, against macro trends like the continued concentration of population in major metropolitan areas and changing employment attitudes, merely improving compensation is insufficient to fundamentally reverse the trend of manpower shortages.

Simultaneously, the report emphasizes that Japan's security environment is becoming "the most severe and complex since the end of World War II." The report cites specific threat examples, including joint military activities by China and Russia around Japan, frequent incursions by Chinese military aircraft into airspace around Taiwan and across the median line, the normalization of Chinese unmanned system Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities in the East China Sea, and North Korea's ongoing nuclear and missile development. These dynamics not only increase the daily operational burden on the Air Self-Defense Force, such as scramble missions, creating an asymmetric burden in terms of manpower and cost, but also exert continuous pressure on Japan's overall defense posture.

Based on the analysis of the structural contradiction between human resource constraints and expanding security demands, the report systematically proposes five specific reform initiatives for the Air Self-Defense Force. First, optimize the number of manned aircraft, with the core being the development and integration of unmanned assets like Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) to build Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T), thereby conserving and reallocating human resources while maintaining or even enhancing combat capability. Second, streamline and optimize command structures, especially following the establishment of the Joint Operations Command, by leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to accelerate information analysis and decision-making, reducing the personnel burden on command echelons. Third, promote the multi-skilling of personnel, breaking down traditional specialized "special skill" barriers to cultivate "multi-capable airmen" capable of performing cross-domain tasks, in support of new operational concepts like Agile Combat Employment (ACE). Fourth, strengthen base defense by employing advanced technologies such as ground robots, unmanned aerial vehicles, and high-power microwaves, reducing reliance on manpower-intensive patrols. Fifth, transform training through virtual reality, augmented reality, and high-performance simulators to optimize the number of trainer aircraft procured and improve training efficiency.

The report's conclusion clearly states that advancing labor-saving and unmanned transformation is not a contraction of capability, but a forward-looking strategic choice to maintain and enhance deterrence and response capabilities under demographic constraints. This requires Japan to explicitly position the development of such capabilities as a pillar of its national defense strategy and to promote cross-domain technological cooperation and institutional innovation to ensure the long-term sustainability of its defense forces in an era of population decline.