Competitive Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) UAVs: Applications in the Russia-Ukraine War

Key Chapter Title List

1. Definitions: Analysis of UAV-Related Terminology
2. The Evolving Landscape of Unmanned Combat Aerial Systems
3. From Permissive to Contested Environments: Lessons from MALE UAVs
4. Overview of National Unmanned Combat Aerial System Developments (Australia, France-Germany-Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK-Italy-Japan)
5. The Vulnerability Curve of MALE UAVs and Case Studies (Turkish Experience, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.)
6. Application of MALE UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine War
7. Performance of Russian MALE UAVs in Actual Combat
8. Challenges in Learning from Ukrainian and Russian Experiences
9. Conclusion: The Future of Unmanned Systems and the Prospects for MALE Platforms

Document Introduction

With the return of the risk of high-intensity conflict in the neighborhood, the role of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare is undergoing profound reshaping. This report, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in November 2024, focuses on Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicles, which once dominated in permissive airspace, and delves into the survivability crisis and tactical adaptations they face in increasingly contested operational environments. The report points out that although MALE platforms have demonstrated significant utility in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and ground strike missions, they were not originally designed to counter today's dense and diverse ground-based air defense threats, leading to the exposure of severe vulnerabilities in the Russia-Ukraine war and multiple conflicts in the Middle East.

The report first sorts out the complex terminology system of unmanned aerial systems, clarifying the definitions and evolution of concepts from "unmanned aerial vehicles" to "unmanned combat aerial systems," "collaborative combat aircraft," and others, laying the foundation for subsequent analysis. Subsequently, the report reviews the development trajectories and strategic shifts of major countries in the field of high-end unmanned combat aerial systems (such as UCAVs and their successor concepts like CCA, ACP, and long-range carriers). It notes that nations are shifting from pursuing independent, expensive single platforms to developing families of systems with varying levels of expendability and survivability, designed to operate in conjunction with manned combat aircraft, to address contested airspace and compensate for the shortage of manned aircraft.

The core section of the report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of MALE UAVs in multiple real combat environments. By examining Turkey's use of UAVs in Syria, Libya, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the report reveals that integrating UAVs with electronic warfare systems and exploiting opponents' insufficient training and equipment limitations can yield temporary advantages. However, such advantages quickly diminish when facing more powerful and adaptive air defense systems (as seen in the Ukrainian theater). The report focuses on assessing the operational experiences of Ukraine's TB2 drones and Russia's "Forpost" and "Orion" MALE platforms in the Russia-Ukraine war. It points out that while they may play a role in the early stages of the war or during specific campaign windows (such as in the Kursk region), their direct combat effectiveness is limited in highly contested airspace, forcing them to shift towards stand-off ISR missions or operate in relatively permissive maritime environments.

The report concludes that the vulnerabilities exposed by the current generation of MALE UAVs when facing short and medium-range air defense systems compel nations to make adaptive adjustments in tactics, procedures, and platform design. In the short term, adding self-protection aids and adjusting operational concepts are the ways to cope. In the medium to long term, developing more survivable platforms based on low-observability designs, adopting low-cost expendable/disposable systems, or hybridizing multiple architectures will be key paths to maintaining the relevance of MALE-level ISR capabilities in future contested airspace. This report provides defense planners, military analysts, and strategic researchers with profound insights based on empirical evidence from recent conflicts, offering significant reference value for understanding the evolution and limitations of unmanned systems in modern and future warfare.