Ukraine: From War to Peace and Recovery

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. National Security and Defense: Key Dynamics, Processes, and Trends
2. Peace Process
3. Policy Decisions and Actions of the Ukrainian Government in the Defense Sector
4. External Events (External Factors)
5. Russia
6. Foreign Policy
7. Economy
8. Energy Sector
9. Social Sphere: The Social Component of the 2025 Budget
10. Citizens' Views on Current Issues

Document Introduction

This report, published by the Razumkov Centre in November 2024, provides a comprehensive and in-depth assessment of the multidimensional challenges and prospects facing Ukraine as the war enters a new phase. The report posits that November 2024 marks a new round of qualitative escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Russia, by intensifying frontline offensives, implementing unprecedented nuclear blackmail, and conducting large-scale strikes against civilian infrastructure, is attempting to secure maximum territorial gains and fundamentally alter the battlefield situation ahead of the anticipated inauguration of a Trump administration, which may push for negotiations. The outcome of the US election has become a key variable influencing the conflict dynamics and the process of political-diplomatic resolution. The uncertainty it brings has prompted both sides of the conflict and their Western allies to accelerate adjustments to their respective strategic positioning and policies.

The report is rigorously structured, sequentially analyzing issues such as national security and military operations, the possibility of peace negotiations, problems within Ukraine's domestic defense mobilization and procurement systems, key external events (e.g., the resurgence of the Syrian situation, Western concerns regarding Chinese drone production for Russia), and Russia's internal military budget and the construction of a "victory narrative." In the foreign policy section, the report focuses on the impact of Trump's election victory on global geopolitics, the reactions of European countries, and Ukraine's diplomatic efforts to consolidate international support, advance peace plans, and deepen integration with the European Union.

In the economic sphere, the report provides a detailed analysis of the defense-oriented characteristics of Ukraine's 2025 state budget, its deep dependence on international aid, the current status and risks of macroeconomic indicators (such as growth, exports, foreign exchange reserves), and faint signs of improvement in the investment climate. The energy chapter focuses on the damage caused by Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's energy system (particularly infrastructure related to nuclear power plants), the severe reality of electricity shortages, government countermeasures and their communication issues, and prospectively identifies four key factors that will determine the future development of the energy sector.

Furthermore, the report thoroughly examines the compression of the 2025 budget in social areas (such as pensions, education, healthcare) and the potential livelihood issues this may trigger. Combining data from the International Monetary Fund, it warns of the long-term negative impacts of continued population outflow and a sharp decline in remittance income on the labor market and economic recovery. The report concludes with exclusive public opinion survey data conducted by the Razumkov Centre in September 2024, revealing the evolution of Ukrainian public attitudes towards various countries, support for joining the EU and NATO, and significant changes in views on conditions for negotiations with Russia, providing an empirical basis for understanding Ukrainian public sentiment.

This analysis comprehensively employs various methods including battlefield dynamics monitoring, policy text analysis, macroeconomic data interpretation, and sociological surveys. It aims to provide professional readers with an authoritative and objective assessment report on Ukraine's current comprehensive situation and future trajectory.