The strategy to defeat North Korea in the Ukraine war requires

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. Deadly Attraction
3. From Arms Trade to Strategic Alliance
4. Battlefield Contributions and Advanced Technology Returns
5. The Rapid Leap in North Korea's Conventional and Strategic Capabilities
6. Alliance Threat Linkage on the Korean Peninsula
7. Conclusion: Disrupting the Russia-North Korea Partnership by Defeating North Korea in Ukraine

Document Introduction

The outbreak and continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has unexpectedly accelerated the formation of a geostrategic axis: the Russia-North Korea partnership. This report provides an in-depth analysis of how this alliance has evolved from initial limited cooperation based on sanctions evasion into a comprehensive strategic alliance, now underpinned by North Korea's direct military intervention in the Ukrainian battlefield. The report points out that this evolution has not only altered the equipment and manpower balance on the European battlefield but, through the large-scale reverse transfer of cutting-edge military technology, has drastically changed the military power balance and strategic stability posture on the Korean Peninsula and even in the broader Northeast Asia region.

The core argument of the report is that North Korea, by providing Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, and even deploying combat personnel, has become an indispensable source of support for Russia in the Ukraine war. In return, Russia is crossing the "red lines" drawn by South Korea, transferring critical military capabilities to North Korea, including advanced fighter jet production technology, radar-guided air-to-air missiles, early warning aircraft technology, and even solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technologies. This reciprocal model of "battlefield contribution - technology return" constitutes the substantive foundation of the Russia-North Korea "comprehensive strategic partnership," further solidified by the mutual defense treaty with Cold War overtones that the two sides revived in 2024.

By systematically reviewing the new weapon systems publicly unveiled by North Korea since 2022 (as listed in Table 1), this report argues that their development timeline and the magnitude of their technological leaps strongly suggest large-scale technological input from Russia. More worryingly, this cooperation has transcended mere arms trade, revealing risks of strategic linkage. North Korean leadership has explicitly linked the experience from the Ukraine battlefield to its deterrence against South Korea, while the Russia-North Korea mutual assistance clauses theoretically provide a basis for potential future Russian intervention in a Korean Peninsula conflict, thereby establishing a dangerous connection between the two crises in Europe and East Asia.

Based on the above analysis, the report's core policy recommendation is clear and direct: the key to disrupting the Russia-North Korea alliance lies in undermining its reciprocal foundation, namely, by fully assisting Ukraine in defeating North Korean military forces on the battlefield. Specifically, South Korea and its allies should proactively provide lethal military assistance to Ukraine, with the trigger conditions clearly set as Russia launching a new offensive or North Korean troops setting foot on Ukraine's internationally recognized borders. This move aims to diminish the battlefield gains Russia obtains from North Korea, increase North Korea's cost of participation, thereby creating pressure and distrust within the alliance and ultimately prompting this "axis of evil" to collapse from within. The report emphasizes that the window for action is narrowing, and decisive measures must be taken before this partnership further solidifies and triggers broader regional conflict chain reactions.