The tactical evolution of Russia in the third year of the war in Ukraine.

Key Chapter Titles

1. Introduction
2. Operational Context
3. Tactical Context and Russia's Offensive Triangle
4. The Evolution of Ground Close Combat Tactics
5. Firepower: Deep Attrition
6. Engineering and Fortification
7. Reconnaissance: Mass Observation
8. Medical Support and Casualty Evacuation
9. Logistics, Resupply, and Rotation
10. Long-Range Strikes, Air Defense, and Electronic Protection
11. Recommendations for Supporting Ukraine
12. Recommendations for NATO

Document Summary

This report, authored by researchers from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) based on field visits to the Ukrainian frontlines in November 2024 and January 2025, aims to analyze key tactical-level developments for both sides in the conflict as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third year (as of early 2025). The report notes that the war has evolved into a highly attritional conflict, with both sides shifting focus from seeking breakthroughs to inflicting maximum damage on the other. The Russian military has created a multi-faceted dilemma for Ukrainian defenses through an "offensive triangle" integrating infantry/mechanized forces, mass FPV drone/artillery fire, and glide bombs (UMPK). The core of the report lies in describing the current operational systems of the Russian and Ukrainian armies and distinguishing which tactical changes are expedients for the current situation and which may represent enduring, significant transformations.

The main body of the report employs a functional analysis approach, systematically examining several core tactical areas. In ground close combat, Russian forces employ a platoon/squad-based "probing-attrition-assault" model, relying on manpower attrition and firepower superiority, while Ukrainian forces emphasize firepower depth, force dispersal, and fortification protection in response. Regarding firepower, although tactical drones like FPVs cause 60-70% of Russian equipment losses, Ukrainian commanders emphasize that drones must be integrated with artillery to achieve maximum effect; currently, Ukrainian artillery is severely constrained by insufficient numbers of guns, spare parts shortages, and performance variations due to diverse ammunition (particularly propellant) supply sources. Engineering and fortification work is heavily reliant on manual labor due to frontline fire threats, becoming a critical factor affecting unit survival and morale. Reconnaissance is now almost entirely drone-dominated, creating a highly transparent battlefield environment around the contact line. Medical evacuation and logistical resupply have become extremely dangerous and complex due to battlefield transparency and precision fire threats, prompting both sides to widely adopt drones for material delivery and significantly reduce personnel movement and rotation frequency.

Based on these observations, the report proposes a series of targeted recommendations for Ukraine and its international partners. The focus of support for Ukraine lies in maintaining the sustainability of its defense, with the core being addressing low morale among frontline veterans. This involves increasing pay, reforming the compensation system, halting the formation of new units and prioritizing filling experienced existing units to full strength, and implementing frontline unit rotation for rest. In terms of equipment, there is a need to continuously expand the production and supply of critical items like 155mm artillery shells and gun barrels, simultaneously scale up drone production capacity, and prioritize providing more infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers to enhance battlefield survivability and mobility. To counter the threat of Russian glide bombs, it is recommended to reduce their sortie rates by enhancing long-range strike capabilities to attack Russian airbases and supply points, and to explore technical interception solutions.

Finally, the report distills key lessons for NATO forces. Despite the overall poor performance of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the asymmetric impact of their glide bombs validates the importance of air power and stand-off strike weapons. Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) capability has become a survival requirement for all services and branches, necessitating the development of economically sustainable interception means. NATO needs to re-evaluate the balance between the quantity and maintainability of mechanized platforms, prioritize artillery and specialized ammunition (e.g., BONUS) stockpiles and industrial sustainability, and thoroughly update medical evacuation doctrines that are unexecutable under modern high-intensity combat conditions. The report emphasizes that NATO forces must adapt to continuously evolving threats, rather than merely perfecting tactics from a bygone era.