Russian Cognitive Warfare Strategy and Its Impact on the War in Ukraine

Key Chapter Title List

1. Abstract: The Necessity of Understanding Cognitive Warfare
2. Historical Background
3. Strategic Intent: Driven by Necessity and Opportunity
4. Scope: Tactical, Operational, and Strategic-Level Information Operations
5. Cross-Generational and Cross-Theater Information Operations
6. Beyond Informational Means: The Combined Use of Physical Tools
7. Beyond Traditional Informational Means: Multi-Platform Narrative Infiltration
8. Effects and Vulnerabilities
9. Conclusion: Strategy Recommendations for Countering Russian Cognitive Warfare

Document Introduction

Cognitive warfare has become a key strategic domain influencing the international security landscape. This report, published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in June 2025, systematically analyzes the strategy, means, and impact of Russia as a primary actor in cognitive warfare. The report states that cognitive warfare is a form of operations aimed at influencing an adversary's reasoning, decision-making, and actions to achieve strategic objectives with minimal military cost. Countries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly employing cognitive warfare against the United States. The report emphasizes that defeating cognitive warfare is feasible, and the key lies in systematically recognizing and exploiting the inherent weaknesses of an adversary's reliance on this means.

The core argument of this report is that cognitive warfare is a central method for Russia to wage war, implement governance, and maintain occupation, with its objectives and effects far exceeding tactical-level disinformation. The report traces the historical lineage of Russian cognitive warfare from its inheritance of the Soviet "reflexive control" theory and points out that its capabilities have continued to strengthen rather than weaken during Putin's tenure. Russia's cognitive warfare is rooted in a fundamental need: its strategic ambitions far exceed its actual available military and economic resources, thus it must bridge the gap between ends and means by shaping the adversary's cognition. Russia's strategic objectives have remained constant over the long term, including maintaining the Putin regime, re-establishing Russia as a great power (predicated on controlling Ukraine and Belarus), restoring influence over former Soviet states, and establishing a world order where U.S. influence is diminished, NATO is divided, and Russia holds decisive sway.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the scope of Russian cognitive warfare implementation, covering tactical-level information operations targeting specific events, operational-level information campaigns targeting specific countries or issues, and up to strategic-level narratives aimed at shaping the adversary's fundamental cognitive premises and willingness to act. Using examples such as Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Finland, the report reveals how Russia executes cross-generational cognitive warfare spanning decades and multiple geographical regions, numbing opponents through repetitive and persistent information dissemination, and activating dormant narratives when the time is ripe. Its implementation methods are not limited to media manipulation and online trolls but extensively utilize diverse platforms and individuals such as diplomatic channels, international organizations, state-owned enterprises (e.g., Rosatom), the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC MP), cultural institutions (e.g., Rossotrudnichestvo), and carefully selected "cognitive warfare warriors" to disseminate its narratives. Simultaneously, Russia employs physical means such as military exercises, cyberattacks, false flag operations, and even actual combat operations as tools to amplify the effects of cognitive warfare, aiming to instill fear and paralyze adversary decision-making.

The report assesses the effects and inherent vulnerabilities of Russian cognitive warfare. Although cognitive warfare has allowed Russia to achieve results unattainable by conventional forces alone—for example, delaying Western military aid to Ukraine through nuclear blackmail information operations—its actions are not always effective and can fail or even backfire. Russia's over-reliance on cognitive warfare constitutes a key vulnerability: the success or failure of its strategy heavily depends on whether the West accepts the version of reality it constructs. Furthermore, Russia's blind belief in its own propaganda can lead to misjudgments of the battlefield situation and its own capabilities. The Putin regime's domestic information control is not monolithic, and the rise of nationalist military blogger communities poses a challenge.

Based on the above analysis, the report proposes asymmetric counter-strategies for the United States and its allies in the conclusion. The core recommendation is to avoid falling into a symmetrical war of attrition by refuting Russian disinformation point-by-point at the tactical level, and instead focus on identifying and rejecting the fundamental premises that Russia attempts to implant (such as "Russia has a right to a sphere of influence" or "Russian victory is inevitable"). The report notes that Russian cognitive warfare is predictable because it serves long-term, unchanging strategic objectives, which provides opportunities for early warning and countermeasures. The most effective countermeasures often involve taking concrete actions in the real world; for example, Ukraine's successful strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet thwarted Russia's false narrative on global food security. Finally, the report warns the United States against imitating Russia's cognitive warfare model, as over-reliance on this means has had a destructive impact on Russian society and its physical capabilities; the West should leverage its genuine power aligned with its objectives to effectively offset Russian and other adversaries' cognitive warfare efforts by exposing their attempts, rejecting their false premises, and focusing on real-world conditions.