Prevention Priority Survey

Key Chapter Title List

1. Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) Overview and Objectives
2. The Evolution and Current Trends of the Global Security Environment
3. Risk Assessment Matrix: Definitions and Classification Criteria
4. 2024 Survey Methodology and Execution Process
5. Key Findings: Analysis of Tier I Priorities
6. Overview of Tier II & III Priorities
7. New and Significantly Revised Conflict Situations
8. Other Potential Crises Worth Noting
9. Mission and Working Methods of the Center for Preventive Action (CPA)
10. Note on the Council on Foreign Relations

Document Introduction

The annual report "Preventive Priorities Survey 2024," published by the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) under the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), aims to systematically assess ongoing and potential conflicts likely to occur within the next year that could impact U.S. interests. The core objective of the survey is to provide the U.S. policymaking community with strategic prioritization, helping it effectively address the growing global demand for conflict prevention and mitigation amidst limited resources. Since its launch in 2008, the PPS has become an important tool for identifying sources of instability abroad and warning of potential military intervention risks.

This year's report continues the PPS's core analytical framework, which evaluates conflict situations based on two dimensions: the "likelihood" of occurrence and the "level of impact on U.S. interests," and categorizes thirty selected conflict situations into three priority tiers (Tier I, II, III). The 2024 survey introduced a significant methodological adjustment by including U.S. domestic risks—specifically domestic terrorism and political violence potentially triggered by the 2024 presidential election—in its assessment for the first time. This reflects that U.S. domestic political polarization has become a security concern highly prioritized by policy experts. The survey was conducted between October and November 2023. Thirty conflict situations were identified through an open call and expert review. Questionnaires were distributed to over 15,000 U.S. government officials, foreign policy experts, and scholars, resulting in approximately 550 valid responses, upon which rigorous scoring and ranking were based.

The report's key findings reveal the severity and complexity of the current global security environment. 2024 saw an unprecedented three Tier I priority situations, all assessed as having "high likelihood" and "high impact." In addition to the aforementioned U.S. domestic political violence, the other two include: the escalation of the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip into a broader regional conflict, and a surge in migration flows toward the U.S. southwestern border due to criminal violence, corruption, and economic hardship in Central America and Mexico. This indicates a diversification of sources posing direct and urgent threats to core U.S. interests. Meanwhile, although an armed confrontation in the South China Sea and a potential power struggle in Moscow, Russia, due to setbacks in the Ukraine war were assessed as having "low likelihood," their potential "high impact" similarly highlights deep-seated anxieties against the backdrop of great power competition. Furthermore, conflict risk levels have risen in areas such as between Turkey and Kurdish armed groups, within Yemen, and along the China-India border.

Beyond the thirty core assessed situations, the report also lists "other potential crises worth noting" additionally suggested by surveyed experts. These include political instability in coastal West Africa, violence by criminal organizations in Ecuador, the potential escalation of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea due to disputes over Red Sea port access, and increasingly assertive Russian actions in Eastern Europe and the Arctic. These additions further outline the diffusion and interconnectedness of global potential conflict hotspots. Overall, the 2024 PPS depicts a world where conflict risks are generally elevated, characterized by the intertwining of traditional great power rivalry and regional internal turmoil, and increasingly blurred boundaries between domestic and international security.

Finally, the report outlines the work conducted by the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) in the field of conflict prevention through regular reports, engagement with government and media, building networks with international organizations, and providing expert knowledge. This survey, as one of its core outputs, aims to provide policymakers, scholars, and actors concerned with international security with a professionally-consensus-based risk map and early warning reference, with the hope of facilitating effective preventive action before crises erupt.