For: Global Maritime Strategic Passage Security Situation Assessment and Outlook

Key Chapter Titles

1. Research Background and Strategic Chokepoint Definition: Why Are They "Vital Passages"?
2. Assessment Framework: A Multivariate Model of Strategic Value, Risk Levels, and Game Theory Dimensions
3. The Strait of Malacca: Vulnerability of a Traditional Hub and Diversification Alternatives
4. The Strait of Hormuz: Energy Lifeline and Focal Point of Proxy Conflicts
5. The Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Interlocking Links in the Eurasia Logistics Chain
6. The Panama Canal: New Challenges under Climate Change and Shifts in Operational Control
7. Arctic Sea Routes (Northeast/Northwest): Geoeconomic Restructuring under Ice Melt
8. The Turkish Straits and the Danish Straits: Tension Between Historical Jurisprudence and Actual Control
9. Comparative Analysis of Major Powers' Passage Strategies: Positions and Power Projection of the US, China, Russia, and the EU
10. The Impact of Non-State Actors: Piracy, Terrorism, and Private Security Companies
11. Future Scenario Projection (2025-2035): Conflict, Cooperation, and Technological Change
12. Conclusions and Policy Implications: A Comprehensive Plan for Ensuring Passage Security

Document Introduction

Approximately 80% of global trade is conducted via maritime transport, with over a dozen key strategic maritime passages constituting the arterial system of the world economy. These geographical "chokepoints" are not only crucial for commercial logistics efficiency but also serve as core nodes for national power projection, energy security, and strategic deterrence. Entering the third decade of the 21st century, intensified great power competition, frequent regional conflicts, and the compounding effects of climate change and non-traditional security threats have rendered the security landscape of major maritime passages increasingly complex. This report aims to construct a systematic assessment framework to conduct in-depth analysis of the eight most strategically significant maritime passages globally, evaluating their risk evolution and game dynamics up to 2035, thereby providing policymakers and researchers with a long-term, fact- and data-based perspective.

The report first clarifies the selection criteria for "strategic passages," integrating multiple dimensions such as geographical irreplaceability, trade volume, proportion of energy transportation, military value, and historical conflict frequency. Building on this, we propose a three-dimensional assessment model combining strategic value, risk levels (covering political, military, economic, environmental, and technological categories), and the intensity of great power competition. This model is used for a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of each passage and serves as the core methodology of this study, ensuring consistency and comparability in the assessments.

The main body of the report sequentially delves into an analysis of the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal-Bab el-Mandeb Strait combination, the Panama Canal, the Arctic Sea Routes (Northeast and Northwest), the Turkish Straits, and the Danish Straits. Each chapter examines in detail the passage's historical evolution, current strategic importance, key stakeholders, specific risks (such as narrow channels, political instability in littoral states, potential blockade points, piracy attacks, legal disputes, etc.), as well as the strategies and deployments of relevant major powers and international organizations. For example, the analysis of the Strait of Hormuz not only focuses on its share of global oil trade but also delves into the relationships among littoral states, the military presence of extra-regional powers, and the direct impact of "gray zone" conflicts on passage security.

Based on the independent assessments of each passage, the report further conducts comparative analysis and comprehensive outlook. We compare the strategic demands, capability advantages, and policy tools of major powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union regarding key passages, revealing a complex landscape of coexisting cooperation and competition. Simultaneously, the report assesses the unique challenges posed to passage security by non-state actors, such as pirate groups, transnational criminal organizations, and private military and security companies.

Finally, by setting different driving variables, the report constructs multiple scenarios leading up to 2035, including limited conflict escalation, major powers reaching partial security agreements, climate change accelerating alterations in navigational conditions, and new energy technologies diminishing the value of traditional energy passages. The conclusion section summarizes the core findings, pointing out that ensuring the security of global strategic maritime passages requires moving beyond a purely military perspective to comprehensively employ diplomatic, economic, legal, and technological means. It also proposes a series of policy options for enhancing passage resilience, crisis management, and international cooperation.