Deep Precision Strike: A New Tool for Strategic Competition?

Key Chapter Titles

1. Deep Strike: A Strategic Differentiator
2. First Industrial Age Attempts
3. Deep Strike in the Cold War: From Nuclear to Conventional
4. A Capability Returning to the Core of the Agenda
5. The Proliferation of New Capabilities Globally
6. The Asia-Pacific Theater: Depth and Vastness
7. The European Theater: A Testing Ground for Deep Strike
8. The Middle East: Long-Range Escalation
9. The Future of Deep Strike Capabilities
10. Deep Strike in the French Model
11. On Strategic Considerations

Document Introduction

This study focuses on the resurgence and evolution of deep precision strike capabilities in contemporary strategic competition. The report argues that since the Ukrainian battlefield stalemate in the winter of 2023, both warring parties have significantly increased their use of deep precision strikes to seek military effects unattainable at the front lines. This trend not only exposes the vulnerability of European nations to such threats and their own capability limitations but also signifies that deep strike, as a strategic tool, is undergoing technological proliferation, tactical innovation, and paradigm reshaping across global conflict theaters.

The report first systematically traces the origin and historical evolution of the deep strike concept, from its germination during World War I to break the trench warfare deadlock, to its close association with nuclear deterrence and development of a significant conventional dimension during the Cold War, and its subsequent marginalization after the Cold War due to the diminished prospect of high-intensity peer conflict. The analysis points out that the current resurgence of deep strike capabilities is driven by a triple factor: technological advancement (precision, range, penetration), cost reduction, and intensified strategic competition. The war in Ukraine has become a key laboratory, where both sides extensively employ a hybrid strike system ranging from ballistic missiles, cruise missiles to various drones and guided munitions to attack high-value targets in the enemy's depth, simultaneously spurring innovation and adaptation in defense systems.

The report then, through comparative study, delves into the development trends of deep strike capabilities in three key theaters: Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. In the Asia-Pacific, China employs deep strike as a core means to achieve its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy and counter US power projection, having developed a diversified arsenal of medium and long-range precision strike weapons. The United States and its allies (such as Japan, South Korea) are responding by developing new missiles, adjusting force deployments, and establishing multi-domain task forces. In Europe, the Ukraine conflict has highlighted both the advantages and rigidity of Russia's existing deep strike system, as well as Ukraine's adaptive innovation under equipment disadvantages, particularly the widespread use of low-cost strike means like long-range drones. This conflict has also prompted many European nations to re-evaluate and accelerate the procurement or development of their own deep strike and missile defense capabilities. In the Middle East, Iran and its proxies (such as the Houthis, Hezbollah) are proliferating long-range strike capabilities, conducting power projection and deterrence through ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, posing new challenges to the regional security landscape and Western interests.

The report finally focuses on assessing the current status and future of France in the field of deep strike. Although the French Air and Space Force and Navy possess excellent cruise missiles like SCALP and MdCN, stockpiles are limited, and the Army's long-range strike capability is weak (with only a small number of soon-to-be-retired rocket artillery). The 2024-2030 Military Planning Law sets objectives to address these capability gaps, including developing rocket artillery with a range of 150 km or more and 500 km missiles through the "Land-Based Long-Range Strike" innovation partnership, and participating in multinational cooperation such as the European Long-Range Strike Initiative (ELSA). The report emphasizes that future deep strike systems need to balance high-performance "penetration-type" systems with low-cost "saturation-type" systems, and consider strategic issues such as linkage with nuclear deterrence forces, target selection, and escalation control.

This report is based on original research from the Security Studies Center of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). It employs a comprehensive methodology of historical analysis, case comparison, technical assessment, and policy interpretation. It aims to provide defense policymakers, strategic researchers, and security affairs analysts with an authoritative and in-depth assessment of the evolutionary trends of this key capability: deep precision strike.