Multipolar Geopolitics: How to Respond to Europe's Diminishing Influence in Southeast Asia

Key Chapter Titles

1. Abstract
2. The Center of a Multipolar World: Indo-Pacific Rise and Europe's Risk
3. The Revival of Non-Alignment
4. Europe's Strategic Challenges
5. Pathways to Gradually Regaining Relevance
6. Conclusion

Document Introduction

This report is authored by analysts from the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). Its core concern lies in the stark reality of Europe's continuously waning influence within the rapidly evolving Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape. The report begins by pointing out that the Indo-Pacific region is rapidly becoming the global center of gravity for geopolitics and economics. Its increasingly evident multipolar trend and the proactive revival of "non-alignment" strategies (such as Indonesia joining BRICS+ and Thailand pragmatically deepening relations with China) are reshaping regional alliance structures. However, Europe's credibility as a reliable global actor is being questioned due to strategic incoherence, insufficient engagement, and weak responses to global crises (such as the Gaza War mentioned in the report). The sharp comment by Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar that "Europe needs to get out of the mindset that Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems" accurately captures the prevalent perception of Europe in the Indo-Pacific region.

The report delves into the internal roots of Europe's diminishing influence. The primary issue is a lack of strategic cohesion: despite the EU having launched an "Indo-Pacific Strategy," at least five member states still maintain their own independent Indo-Pacific strategies. While these bilateral approaches have value, they dilute Europe's collective influence and are easily exploited by external actors (such as China) to divide Europe. Secondly, the complexity of the EU's bureaucratic system and its tendency to lack sustained commitment after projects end (such as the "Enhancing Security Cooperation in and with Asia" (ESIWA) project) damages its credibility as a reliable partner. Furthermore, in the realm of economic security, while the EU emphasizes "de-risking" from China, its severe import dependence on China in critical areas like semiconductors and rare earths exposes an inherent contradiction between its strategic ambitions and practical dependencies.

The report further contextualizes Europe's predicament within regional security dynamics. China's "gray zone" tactics in the South China Sea (such as the strategic acquisition of land in the Philippines mentioned in the report) and events like North Korean military involvement in the Ukraine conflict all indicate that the security theaters of the Indo-Pacific and Europe are now closely linked. However, in the face of these challenges, regional leadership is fragmented (with domestic political divisions in Japan and South Korea, and ASEAN struggling to coordinate a unified response on the South China Sea issue). If Europe continues to be perceived as disconnected from these security challenges, it risks marginalization amidst the shifting global order.

To address these challenges, the report does not advocate for a complete strategic overhaul but proposes several nuanced adjustment pathways. First, it emphasizes the importance of consistency and long-term commitment, including sustained participation in regional forums, enhanced public diplomacy, and embedding sustainability into project design. Second, it calls for better utilization of the "Team Europe" approach, integrating member states' resources and expertise (such as France's defense partnerships and Germany's economic links) to amplify collective influence. Third, while pursuing participation in formal mechanisms (like the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus), it stresses the need to build trust through low-key, pragmatic informal cooperation, such as sharing experiences in defense resilience building. Fourth, it recommends simplifying bureaucratic procedures to provide clear interfaces for Indo-Pacific partners to interact with the EU.

The report ultimately warns that the Indo-Pacific region is reshaping the global order, and Europe's position within it is precarious. Its key economic and security interests are at stake. Europe must prove through concrete, lasting partnerships that it is not merely a passive observer; otherwise, it faces a high risk of marginalization. The current period of geopolitical fluidity presents an opportunity for Europe to recalibrate its relationship with the Indo-Pacific region. The cost of inaction is too high for both Europe and the global balance of power.