Global Trends: A More Competitive World
The seventh edition of the "Global Trends" report, released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, systematically analyzes the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and five possible scenarios that will shape the global strategic environment over the next two decades, providing policymakers with an analytical framework to address an uncertain future.
Detail
Published
22/12/2025
Key Chapter Title List
- Foreword
- Introduction: Key Themes
- Structural Forces: Setting the Parameters
- Emerging Dynamics
- Scenarios for 2024: Planning for the Future Amid Uncertainty
- Regional Forecasts
- List of Charts and Figures
- Acknowledgments
Document Introduction
This report is the seventh edition of the "Global Trends" series periodically published by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) since 1997. It aims to provide policymakers at the outset of a new U.S. administration with an analytical framework to help them identify and understand key trends and uncertainties likely to shape the strategic environment over the next two decades as they formulate national security strategy. The report explicitly states that its goal is not to make specific predictions about the world in 2040, but rather to broaden perspectives and help decision-makers and the public prepare for a range of possible futures.
The report's analysis is built upon two core organizing principles: first, identifying and assessing the broad structural forces shaping the future strategic environment; second, exploring how populations and leaders act upon and respond to these forces. Based on this, the report is divided into three main sections. The first section examines structural forces in four core areas (Demographics and Human Development, Environment, Economy, Technology), selected for their foundational role in shaping future dynamics, their relatively universal scope, and their ability to offer a reasonable degree of prediction based on existing data and evidence. The second section analyzes how these structural forces interact with other factors to influence emerging dynamics at three analytical levels: individuals and society, states, and the international system; this section involves a higher degree of uncertainty. The third section identifies several key uncertainties and, based on them, constructs five future scenarios for the world in 2040.
Five core themes run throughout the report. First, global challenges (such as climate change, disease, financial crises, technological disruption) will occur more frequently and intensely, testing the resilience of nations and systems. Second, increasing fragmentation within societies, states, and the international system makes addressing transnational challenges more difficult. Third, the growing mismatch between existing systems and structures and the scale of challenges and the effects of fragmentation. Fourth, greater mismatches lead to intensified competition at societal, national, and international levels. Fifth, adaptability will become an urgent priority and a key source of advantage for all actors.
The report specifically explores the COVID-19 pandemic as a factor amplifying uncertainty, examining its role in accelerating or reversing certain trends and highlighting weaknesses in international coordination. Finally, the report presents five possible scenarios for 2040: "A Democratic Renaissance" (a U.S.-led revival of democracies), "A World Adrift" (a disordered international system with China expanding its influence), "Competitive Coexistence" (U.S.-China economic interdependence alongside comprehensive competition), "Separate Silos" (a world fractured into several self-sufficient economic and security blocs), and "Tragedy and Mobilization" (following a global food catastrophe, a coalition led by the EU and China drives profound changes to address global challenges). These scenarios are intended to explore possibilities, not to predict.