United Nations Security Council: Monthly Work Forecast Report

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Overview
2. Review: The Security Council in a Holding Pattern
3. Updates Since the July Forecast
4. Women, Peace and Security
5. Non-Proliferation
6. West Africa and the Sahel
7. Maritime Security
8. Yemen
9. South Sudan
10. Lebanon
11. Syria
12. Libya
13. DPRK (North Korea)

Document Introduction

This report, published by the Security Council Report organization on July 31, 2025, is an in-depth forecast and analysis document concerning the anticipated work and agenda of the United Nations Security Council for August 2025. The report aims to provide professional readers with a forward-looking perspective, analyzing the Council's key priorities for the month, the dynamics of interaction among member states, potential policy divergences, and the progress and challenges of various issues within the complex and evolving international security environment. The content is based entirely on public information, diplomatic practice, and internal Council dynamics available up to the publication date, offering a detailed basis for observing and understanding the decision-making processes and effectiveness of this core multilateral security institution.

The report begins with an overview of the Council's overall work schedule for August. Panama will hold the rotating presidency and plans to host a high-level open debate on "Maritime Security: Prevention, Innovation, and International Cooperation in Addressing New Challenges" as its signature event. Additionally, the Council will hold its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence as per practice and receive the biannual strategic report on the threat posed by ISIS. Regional issues on the agenda cover the Middle East (Syria, Yemen, the Question of Palestine, Lebanon), Africa (Libya, South Sudan, West Africa and the Sahel), and Asia (consultations on the work of the DPRK Sanctions Committee). The report also notes that the Council may continue to hold meetings on Ukraine and mentions the possibility of commemorating the anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

The report then reviews the work posture of the Security Council in the first half of 2025 through detailed data and analysis, revealing it to be in a state of "waiting mode." This status stems from multiple factors: awaiting clarity on the policies of the new U.S. administration, delays in finalizing chairs for subsidiary bodies, waiting for the implementation of ceasefire agreements, and assessing how resource constraints affect the Council's work. Statistical data shows that the number of resolutions adopted by the Council in the first half of 2025 (16) continues the declining trend of recent years, with a high proportion not adopted unanimously (44%), reflecting deep divisions among member states. The two uses of the veto on Ukraine and Gaza further highlight the Council's deadlock in handling highly politicized issues. The report specifically analyzes how the uncertainty brought by shifts in U.S. policy, particularly regarding its stance on Ukraine, climate change, the Women, Peace and Security agenda, and wording on international humanitarian law, has impacted the Council's decision-making atmosphere.

The main body of the report analyzes key issues relevant to August and the near term in a thematic format. The "Women, Peace and Security" chapter focuses on conflict-related sexual violence, with the anticipated open debate expected to address ensuring survivors' access to life-saving services and protection. The report cites data indicating a significant rise in related cases and lists severe situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Haiti, and the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The "Non-Proliferation" chapter, centered on the 1540 Committee's briefing, discusses the long-term challenge of preventing non-state actors from acquiring weapons of mass destruction and the importance of technical assistance. The "West Africa and the Sahel" chapter emphasizes the analysis of intertwined challenges in the region, including a surge in terrorist attacks, turbulent political transitions, worsening humanitarian crises, and rising Russian influence. The "Maritime Security" chapter explores the compound impact of the Red Sea crisis, emerging technological threats, organized crime, and environmental risks on global maritime trade and security.

Regarding specific country issues, the report provides the latest dynamic assessments and forward-looking analysis. The Yemen section details the Houthi resumption of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, tit-for-tat military actions, the stalled peace process, and deteriorating economic and humanitarian conditions. The South Sudan section focuses on escalating domestic violence, obstacles to implementing the peace agreement, a severe humanitarian crisis, and differing views within the Council on the level of pressure to exert on the government. The core of the Lebanon section lies in the negotiations for the mandate renewal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the implementation status of the Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities agreement. The Syria section analyzes the new outbreak of violence in As-Suwayda, the political transition process, the assessment of the future UN presence format, and the pace of international relations normalization. The Libya section focuses on the ongoing political deadlock, fragile ceasefire, development of an electoral roadmap, and human rights concerns. The DPRK section discusses the persistently tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, deepening DPRK-Russia military cooperation, supervision challenges arising from the vacancy of the Panel of Experts for sanctions, and the serious divisions within the Council on this issue.

In summary, this report is not merely an agenda preview but a professional assessment integrating data trends, policy analysis, and geopolitical insights. It reveals that the Security Council will operate in the second half of 2025 against a backdrop of resource constraints, intensified major power competition, and multiple overlapping crises, with its internal unity and operational effectiveness facing severe tests. For professionals studying UN multilateralism, international security governance, major power relations, and specific regional conflicts, this report provides indispensable real-time intelligence and a deep analytical framework.