Afghan Red Crescent Society: - Afghanistan Population Movement (Returnees) Operation

Key Chapter Title List

1. Situation Analysis
2. Summary Response Overview
3. Needs Analysis
4. Operational Risk Assessment
5. Operational Strategy Update
6. Detailed Action Report: Strategic Intervention Sector
7. National Red Cross and Red Crescent Society Capacity Building
8. Partnership and Coordination
9. Secretariat Service Support
10. Funding Overview

Document Introduction

This report is the second operational update document issued by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement regarding the escalating population movement crisis in Afghanistan, focusing on the situation developments and emergency response from January to June 2025. The core of the report reveals that Afghanistan is facing one of the largest and fastest forced return flows in recent history, the root cause of which is directly linked to the systematic deportation policies of neighboring countries Iran and Pakistan. Since 2023, over 3.4 million Afghans have returned or been deported from these two countries, with more than 1.5 million in the first half of 2025 alone. This massive influx of people has placed unprecedented pressure on Afghanistan's already overburdened social systems, strained by chronic poverty, high unemployment, weak infrastructure, and the survival of nearly 29 million people dependent on humanitarian aid.

The report is rigorously structured, first analyzing the composition, movement routes, and urgent needs of the returnees through detailed data. Returnees from Pakistan primarily enter via the Torkham and Spin Boldak border crossings, with nearly 70% being undocumented individuals; while the return flow from Iran accelerated sharply from late June to early July 2025 due to the expiration deadline of the "demographic slip," with a single-day peak exceeding 40,000 people, placing immense pressure on the Islam Qala crossing in Herat Province and the Milak crossing in Nimruz Province. The report points out that women and children constitute a very high proportion among the returnees, accounting for 49% and 59% of the total respectively. They face severe immediate gaps in food, water, healthcare, shelter, and protection in overcrowded transit camps under extreme heat (reaching up to 52°C).

At the operational level, the report details the multi-sectoral response outcomes led by the Afghan Red Crescent Society and supported by the IFRC and Movement partners. As of June 30, 2025, the operation has reached 225,776 returnees by providing emergency tents, over 7,500 hot meals daily, primary healthcare services, psychological support, cash-for-work programs, and water and sanitation facilities. The report also acknowledges significant supply-demand gaps and systemic challenges, particularly in shelter, gender-sensitive WASH facilities, livelihood support, and formalized community participation and feedback mechanisms.

The report provides an in-depth assessment of the multiple risks currently facing the operation, including a funding gap as high as 91% severely constraining service sustainability, extreme weather and public health risks exacerbating vulnerability, and protection risks escalating in crowded environments. Based on this, the operational strategy outlines a 24-month pathway for transitioning from emergency life-saving assistance to early recovery and long-term reintegration, aiming to enhance the resilience and self-sufficiency of returning families through vocational skills training, permanent housing support, and the women-focused "Marastoon" project.

This report is based on real-time monitoring data from the Afghan Red Crescent Society at border crossings, rapid needs assessments, and information from UN agencies, comprehensively utilizing methods such as quantitative statistics, sectoral indicator tracking, and qualitative field observations. It is not only a progress report on humanitarian action but also an in-depth case study on implementing effective humanitarian intervention and early recovery against the backdrop of politically driven large-scale population movements, extreme resource scarcity, and complex geopolitics. It provides invaluable empirical analysis and strategic reference for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in related fields.