Key and Emerging Technologies Index Report

Key Chapter Title List

1. About the Defense, Emerging Technology, and Strategy Project
2. Executive Summary
3. Introduction: Quantifying Power and Core Themes
4. Artificial Intelligence
5. Biotechnology
6. Semiconductors
7. Space
8. Quantum
9. Appendix: Indicator Selection, Data Collection and Processing, and Overview of Sub-field Indicators

Document Introduction

This report, released by the Defense, Emerging Technology, and Strategy Project team at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, aims to fill the current gap in quantitative analysis of geopolitical competition in critical and emerging technologies. The report constructs a comprehensive "Critical and Emerging Technologies Index." By collecting, processing, and performing weighted calculations on thousands of public and commercial data points from 25 countries across five core domains—artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, space, and quantum technology—it provides an interactive visual dashboard. This enables policymakers, strategists, and researchers to move beyond macro narratives and conduct precise cross-domain, cross-national comparisons and dynamic analysis.

The report is rigorously structured, first clarifying the methodological framework for quantifying "technological power." The index is based on the concept of "pillars," decomposing each technological domain into several key dimensions. These dimensions include cross-domain foundational pillars such as "Economic Resources," "Human Capital," "Security," "Regulation," and "Global Actors," as well as domain-specific technical capability pillars. Through data normalization and weight allocation, comprehensive scores for individual countries in single domains and across domains are ultimately generated. The report's default domain weights reflect an assessment of each technology's strategic value: semiconductors account for 35%, artificial intelligence for 25%, biotechnology for 20%, space for 15%, and quantum for 5%. However, users can customize these weights via the dashboard to test different analytical assumptions.

The report's core findings reveal a clear hierarchy in the current global technological power landscape. The United States holds a leading position in all five major technology domains, with particularly significant advantages in space and artificial intelligence. Its driving force primarily stems from a unique decentralized innovation ecosystem, substantial economic resources, and top-tier human capital. While China still lags behind the U.S. in semiconductors and advanced artificial intelligence, it is rapidly closing the gap in biotechnology and quantum. Its advantages lie in massive human capital, centralized planning, and state-led industrial investment. Europe, as a whole, ranks third in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum, but trails behind major East Asian economies and Russia in semiconductors and space. The report specifically notes that the United States, through synergistic cooperation with allies such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea, has significantly enhanced its overall strength and supply chain resilience in key areas like quantum, semiconductors, and biotechnology.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of each technological domain. In artificial intelligence, the United States holds advantages in algorithms, computing power, and economic resources, while China leads in data volume and human capital. In biotechnology, the overall performance of the U.S. and China is close; China dominates in pharmaceutical production, while the U.S. leads in genetic engineering, vaccine development, and agricultural technology. The semiconductor field exhibits a pattern of high specialization and interdependence, with no single country controlling the complete advanced supply chain from design, equipment, and materials to manufacturing and packaging/testing. The United States, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea dominate key bottleneck segments. In space, the vitality of the U.S. private sector drives its leading position, but it also faces asymmetric vulnerabilities posed by Chinese and Russian anti-satellite capabilities. Quantum technology remains in the early R&D stage, with the United States, China, and Europe forming the first tier; China holds significant advantages in quantum sensing and communication.

This report is not merely a static ranking but a dynamic analytical tool. Its methodological appendix details indicator selection, data sources (covering dozens of authoritative institutions such as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Stanford's AI Index, and the Boston Consulting Group), processing procedures, and the logic behind weight settings, ensuring transparency and reproducibility of the analysis. It provides a solid empirical foundation for understanding how technology reshapes national power, assessing strategic competition dynamics, and formulating future-oriented science, technology, and security policies.