Danish Security and Defense Policy Analysis Report: Challenges and Opportunities for the Year

Key Chapter Title List

1. Geostrategic Developments Towards 2035
2. Security Policy Threats and Challenges
3. Allies and Partners
4. Implications for Denmark and the Danish Armed Forces Before 2035
5. Increased Importance of Nuclear Weapons
6. European Security After the Russia-Ukraine War
7. Arctic and North Atlantic Security: Intensified Great Power Competition
8. Economics as Security Policy Once Again
9. Military and Civilian Technology and Innovation Competition
10. Hybrid Threats and Cybersecurity
11. NATO: A Strengthened Alliance in a More Complex Security Environment
12. The EU: Growing Contribution to European and Global Security

Document Introduction

This report is authored by the Danish Security Policy Analysis Group. It aims to systematically assess the security environment, threat evolution, and their profound implications for defense and security policy facing the Kingdom of Denmark (including Denmark proper, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland) before 2035. Based on an in-depth analysis of global geostrategic trends, great power competition dynamics, technological change, climate change, and alliance dynamics, the report provides authoritative reference for Denmark's future defense planning and security policy adjustments.

The report first outlines the macro picture of the international system transitioning from a unipolar liberal order to a more fluid, multipolar one with competing economic systems. The relative weakening of U.S. superpower status, China's rise accelerating the restructuring of the power landscape, declining effectiveness of global governance institutions, and the severe challenges to the rules-based international order are highlighted. The deep integration of economics and security policy means supply chain security, critical infrastructure protection, and access to rare resources have become core national security issues. Simultaneously, competition for technological innovation in both military and civilian spheres is intensifying, with disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and hypersonic weapons reshaping the future battlefield and security paradigms.

At the threat assessment level, the report clearly states that Russia's destructive impact on the European security order constitutes the most urgent current threat. Its intent to use force to change borders and pursue spheres of influence poses significant pressure on Danish security. While China will not become a direct conventional military threat to Europe before 2035, as an increasingly powerful and confident global power, it poses multi-dimensional challenges to Europe through technology acquisition, infrastructure influence, and the development of long-range weapon systems. Furthermore, terrorism, transnational crime, irregular migration, and security effects induced by climate change persist, intertwining with great power competition and exacerbating instability in global hotspots.

Alliances and partnerships are the cornerstone of Danish security policy. The report provides a detailed analysis of the evolving roles and division of labor between NATO and the EU in the new era. NATO remains the core guarantee of Danish security, with its deterrence and defense functions significantly strengthened due to the Russian threat, undergoing deep adjustments including force structure, readiness levels, and forward deployment. The EU, as an important geopolitical actor, makes increasingly critical contributions to European and global security through multiple tools such as economic sanctions, energy autonomy, cybersecurity, crisis management, and defense industrial cooperation. For the first time in history, the Nordic countries are gathered in NATO as military allies, opening new prospects for regional defense cooperation. Additionally, the report assesses the strategic value of key bilateral relationships with the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, as well as partners in the Indo-Pacific region such as India and Japan.

The report finally focuses on the specific implications for Denmark and its armed forces. Facing multiple and intensifying threats, Denmark needs to significantly enhance its contribution to NATO's collective defense and deterrence, particularly in forward presence and surveillance missions in the Baltic Sea region, the Arctic, and the North Atlantic. The armed forces require large-scale technological upgrades and modernization to maintain interoperability with key allies and enhance individual combat effectiveness despite limited manpower growth. Furthermore, societal security needs to adapt to the changing threat landscape, strengthening resilience against hybrid attacks, cyber threats, supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters. The report emphasizes that even if defense spending increases to 2% of GDP, resources will remain tight, necessitating sharper priority choices between strengthening homeland/regional defense and participating in international operations outside the region.

This analysis is based on background research reports by Danish and international experts, extensive interviews, and field research at NATO, the EU, the UN, and major partner countries. It reflects diverse professional assessments and does not represent the official position of the governments of Denmark, the Faroe Islands, or Greenland.