French National Strategic Assessment Update Report: Strategic Challenges and Responses for the Year

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Evolution of the Strategic Context Since 2022
2. Ambition Updated to 2030, Supported by Appropriate Resources
3. Method and Approach
4. Assessing Changes in the Strategic Environment
5. Consequences for France, Europe, and the International Order
6. A Strong and Credible Nuclear Deterrent
7. A United and Resilient France: Moral Rearmament Contributing to the Nation's Crisis Response
8. An Economy Prepared for War
9. First-Class Cyber Resilience
10. France as a Reliable Ally in the Euro-Atlantic Area
11. France as a Driver of European Strategic Autonomy
12. Guaranteeing Assessment Autonomy and Decision-Making Sovereignty

Document Introduction

This report is an update to France's National Strategic Review, published by the French government in 2025, in response to the sharply deteriorated global security environment since the previous assessment in 2022. The report begins by stating that the world is at a "turning point," with conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and the Iranian crisis being acute manifestations of global instability. It systematically analyzes four disruptive constants: the persistent and direct threat posed by Russia on Europe's borders, the increasingly unrestricted use of force globally, Europe's need to rely more on its own strength, and the deep integration of technological revolutions (AI, electronic warfare, space, quantum) with battlefield innovation. The report emphasizes that to ensure citizen security, economic prosperity, and national standing, France and Europe must make difficult decisions and drive a profound "European revolution" and "strategic revolution" to master their own destiny.

The first part of the report provides a detailed assessment of the evolution of the strategic environment since 2022. Its core conclusion is that Russia is the primary threat to France and Europe for the foreseeable future (until 2030), with its war of aggression against Ukraine characterized by its unrestricted nature and accompanied by hybrid actions such as nuclear intimidation, cyberattacks, and election interference. The report also points to the People's Republic of China's reinforced posture to become the world's leading power by 2050, Iran's regionally disruptive actions, the return of nuclear weapons to the center of power games, the diffusion and intertwining of conflict zones, and the persistence of transnational threats (terrorism, organized crime, separatism). Furthermore, geostrategic issues such as climate change, biodiversity collapse, demographics, economic challenges, and access to energy and raw materials are incorporated into the analysis. The report argues that transatlantic solidarity and strategic stability are under pressure, the shift in U.S. policy priorities towards China creates uncertainty, while Europe has undergone a strategic awakening, making progress in defense capabilities and industrial base construction.

Based on this analysis, the second part of the report presents France's updated strategic ambition to 2030: France will rearm materially and morally to prevent, respond to, and win a large-scale, high-intensity war occurring near Europe, while preventing and managing simultaneous disruptive actions against its homeland. To achieve this ambition, the report outlines eleven interconnected Strategic Objectives (SOs) that form the complete framework of France's national strategy. These objectives cover: maintaining a strong and credible nuclear deterrent; building a united and resilient nation and society; creating an economy prepared for war; establishing first-class cyber resilience; consolidating France's role as a reliable ally in the Euro-Atlantic area; promoting European strategic autonomy; becoming a reliable sovereign partner and security provider; guaranteeing assessment and decision-making autonomy; enhancing capabilities to act and defend in the hybrid domain; ensuring the ability to achieve decisive outcomes in military operations; and underpinning Franco-European sovereignty through academic, scientific, and technological excellence.

The third part of the report, "Method and Approach," translates these strategic objectives into concrete lines of action and resource allocation plans. It details how to implement the ambition through three pillars: protecting the nation and strengthening the cohesion and resilience of key actors; reinforcing strategic autonomy and ensuring credible sovereign action capabilities; and contributing to European and international security. The content covers numerous specific areas including optimization of legislative and regulatory frameworks, national mobilization, strengthening of cybersecurity organization, combating organized crime, defense and security planning, securing critical supply chains and energy resilience, strengthening diplomatic networks and resources, structuring industrial and hybrid response capabilities, intelligence and data processing, capacity building for armed forces and internal security forces, defense and security of overseas territories, and development of disruptive technologies. The report ultimately emphasizes that achieving the 2030 goals requires accelerating France's rearmament, decisively shifting towards high-intensity capabilities, and enhancing national resilience, while encouraging the development of European defense in terms of norms, budgetary tools, and operational capabilities.