Annual to U.S. Nuclear Forces Projected Costs

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Cost of Current Plans
3. How Costs Have Changed
4. Background
5. Projected Costs of Nuclear Forces Through 2034
6. Costs of Modernization
7. Share of Nuclear Forces in the Defense Budget
8. Basis for CBO's Updated Estimates
9. Estimating Methodology
10. Excluded Costs
11. Sources of Uncertainty
12. Changes in Costs Compared With the 2023 Estimate

Document Introduction

This report, issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), is the sixth edition in its biennial series of ten-year cost assessments of nuclear forces, as required by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015. Centered on the Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Energy (DOE) budget requests for fiscal year 2025 submitted in March 2024, the report provides a detailed estimate and analysis of the total costs to operate, sustain, and modernize U.S. nuclear forces from 2025 through 2034.

According to CBO's estimate, if plans are executed as scheduled, the costs for DoD and DOE to operate, sustain, and modernize existing and planned nuclear forces from 2025 to 2034 will total $946 billion, averaging about $95 billion annually. This total includes $357 billion for operating and sustaining current and planned nuclear forces and other supporting activities; $309 billion for modernizing strategic and tactical nuclear delivery systems and their associated weapons; $72 billion for modernizing facilities and equipment in the nuclear weapons laboratory complex; $79 billion for modernizing nuclear command, control, communications, and early-warning systems; and $129 billion for potential cost overruns estimated based on historical cost growth patterns. The report specifically notes that the current ten-year cost estimate is $190 billion (or 25 percent) higher than CBO's estimate for 2023–2032 published in 2023. Of this increase, $157 billion stems from higher estimated budget amounts, and $33 billion from higher estimated potential cost overruns.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the cost structure and its drivers. Nuclear forces costs are primarily allocated to four major areas: strategic nuclear delivery systems and weapons, tactical nuclear delivery systems and weapons, DOE's nuclear weapons laboratories and supporting activities, and DoD's command, control, communications, and early-warning systems. The main reasons for cost growth include significant cost overruns in key programs like the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile due to technical challenges, supply chain issues, and scope expansion; the clarification and increase in costs for programs such as DOE production facility modernization; and the natural cost escalation effect from shifting the assessment period forward by two years (2025–2034 instead of 2023–2032). The report includes a dedicated "box" detailing the substantial cost growth and uncertainty of the Sentinel program triggered by a Nunn-McCurdy review, noting that CBO's current estimate does not yet fully incorporate all the additional costs revealed by that review.

The report also assesses the trend of nuclear forces costs as a share of the overall defense budget. CBO estimates that under the plans submitted with the 2025 budget, nuclear forces costs account for about 8.4 percent of total planned defense costs over the ten-year period. The annual share is projected to rise from 7.4 percent in 2025 to a peak of 9.1 percent in 2031, before declining slightly. This is significantly higher than the 3.9 percent share in 2014 (the starting year of the current series of estimates), reflecting that nuclear modernization programs are transitioning from the planning phase into a high-investment execution phase. Concurrently, the share of research, development, and procurement costs for nuclear weapons and delivery systems within DoD's projected procurement funding is also trending upward, expected to reach a peak of 13.2 percent in 2031, intensifying funding competition pressures within defense programs.

CBO's reporting methodology adheres to its consistent principle of analyzing only costs directly related to the nuclear mission, excluding costs for indirectly related activities such as dismantlement of Cold War legacy nuclear weapons, environmental cleanup, nonproliferation, arms control treaty implementation, and ballistic missile defense. The estimates are based on a detailed analysis of budget documents, combined with projections of overall potential cost overruns using historical cost growth rates. The report acknowledges that the executability of future plans, technical risks, deviations from production schedules, and operating costs during the phase of mixed old and new systems all constitute significant sources of uncertainty. This report aims to provide objective, nonpartisan cost information and analytical basis for Members of the U.S. Congress when making decisions regarding the future scale of nuclear forces, modernization pathways, and budget allocations.