Air Power and Space Power: An Analysis of Defense Policy During the Trump Administration

Key Chapter Title List

1. Problem Overview: The Current State and Crisis of the Air Force and Space Force
2. The Core Value and Strategic Role of Air Power
3. Leadership Awareness and Calls to Action
4. Rebuilding and Restoring the U.S. Air Force to Global Preeminence
5. The Confounding Issue: The Budget "Toll" Phenomenon
6. Specific Measures to Rebuild the Air Force America Needs
7. Laying the Foundation for Space Force Success
8. Major Challenges and Scale Dilemmas Facing the Space Force
9. Space Force Key Program Areas and Cost Estimates
10. Adopting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis as the DoD's Preferred Evaluation Standard
11. Conclusion: A Crisis Demanding Immediate Correction

Document Introduction

This policy report, published by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, aims to systematically analyze the national security challenges facing the Trump administration in 2025, focusing on the severe predicaments of two key U.S. military services: the Air Force and the Space Force. The report states that the Air Force is facing its "oldest, smallest, and least ready" crisis since its establishment in 1947, while the newly formed Space Force struggles to effectively fulfill its core mission due to insufficient resources, personnel shortages, and resistance to integration within the Department of Defense. The report warns that without immediate corrective action, the risk of U.S. failure in the next major conflict will rise sharply.

The report first outlines the surging demand for air and space capabilities in the current global security environment, including China's territorial claims in the Pacific, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and Iran's destabilizing activities in the Middle East. In this context, air and space superiority are seen as a "prerequisite" for any successful military operation. However, the U.S. Air Force fleet is severely aged; for example, the youngest B-52 bomber is already 63 years old. Furthermore, plans to cut nearly a thousand aircraft over the next five years are in place, alongside persistent pilot shortages and spare parts deficiencies. Although the Space Force has been established, its budget constitutes only about 3.5% of the total DoD budget, with a personnel strength of less than ten thousand, making it difficult to meet the demands of various combatant commands.

The core section of the report presents a list of specific rebuilding measures for the Air Force, comprising thirteen key recommendations. These include: fully funding the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) aircraft; increasing annual F-35A procurement to 74 aircraft; increasing annual F-15EX procurement to 24 aircraft; raising annual B-21 bomber procurement to 20 by 2030; funding the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile replacement program as planned; establishing a National Nuclear Deterrence Fund; increasing fighter pilot annual flight hours to 200; fully funding the Weapons System Sustainment (WSS) account; protecting Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) research, development, and procurement; increasing investment in critical munitions stockpiles; enhancing airbase air and missile defense capabilities; procuring at least 26 E-7 aircraft as the next-generation Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS); and initiating research and development for the Next Generation Air-refueling System (NGAS). The report estimates that recovery for the Air Force alone will require a significant increase in annual budget.

Regarding the Space Force, the report analyzes its challenges of being too small, facing surging mission demands, and the threat posed by adversaries (China and Russia) turning space into a "no man's land." The report recommends that the Space Force budget should grow annually by 13%-18% and proposes five key investment areas: deploying advanced space control and counterspace systems; expanding space domain awareness and battle management capabilities; enhancing space access and launch capabilities; adding approximately 4,500 military personnel; and developing cislunar space operations capabilities. The report emphasizes the necessity of consolidating all DoD space agencies under the Space Force to achieve unified effort and efficiency.

The report concludes by strongly advocating that the Department of Defense adopt "cost-effectiveness" analysis as the core decision-making tool for resource allocation, replacing the past piecemeal budget-cutting approach that focused narrowly on individual equipment costs. Citing the high effectiveness of the F-117 stealth fighter in Operation Desert Storm as an example, the report argues for the superiority of advanced systems in overall mission effectiveness and long-term costs.

Based on detailed data and citations, referencing numerous public statements by Air Force and Space Force leadership, congressional testimonies, defense budget documents, and the institute's prior research, this report provides policymakers, defense analysts, and national security professionals with an urgent, in-depth, and actionable assessment of the current state and future investment direction of U.S. air and space power.