Analysis Report on U.S. Military Actions Against Venezuela and Their Impact on Cuba

Key Chapter Title List

1. U.S. Military Buildup Against Venezuela and Strategic Intentions
2. The Evolving Role of Venezuela as Cuba's Ally and Oil Supplier
3. Cuba's Limited Response to the Venezuelan Crisis and Strategic Vulnerability
4. Analysis of U.S. Military Options: From Covert Operations to the Possibility of Full-Scale Invasion
5. Regional Reactions and International Law Criticism: Latin American Countries' Stances and UN Condemnation
6. Strategic Miscalculation and Long-Term Costs: U.S. Regional Influence and the Rise of Alternative Partnerships with China and Russia

Document Introduction

This report focuses on the large-scale U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean region in 2025—including the stationing of 10 naval vessels, 10,000 soldiers, and the "Gerald R. Ford" carrier strike group—and provides an in-depth analysis of the strategic logic behind it. The U.S. officially cites combating drug trafficking as the public rationale, defining Venezuela as a source of "narco-terrorism," authorizing CIA covert operations within Venezuela, and offering a bounty for the arrest of President Maduro. However, the report reveals that its deeper objective is actually to overthrow the Maduro government, thereby cutting off oil supplies to Cuba to precipitate the collapse of the Cuban regime, continuing the long-standing "anti-tyranny triangle" strategy of the Republican right wing.

The report reviews the alliance formed between Cuba and Venezuela since Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998, with a focus on analyzing the evolution of the oil cooperation mechanism. During the peak period from 2008 to 2015, Cuba received over 100,000 barrels per day of preferential Venezuelan oil in exchange for the deployment of medical personnel. However, as Venezuela's oil production halved starting in 2016 due to mismanagement and lack of maintenance, coupled with falling global oil prices, supplies to Cuba have plummeted to less than 32,000 barrels per day. Although Cuba's economic dependence on Venezuelan oil has significantly decreased, and Mexico and Russia have supplemented part of the shortfall at preferential prices, a complete cutoff would still severely impact its economy, albeit not enough to directly cause the regime's collapse.

On the military level, the report assesses various intervention methods the U.S. might employ: including instigating a military coup, special forces decapitation strikes, airstrikes for pressure, and even full-scale invasion. However, considering that the Venezuelan military has adopted Cuban advice to prepare for asymmetric resistance in a "people's war" mode, along with the presence of non-state actors like Colombia's National Liberation Army (ELN), the costs of occupation and control would far exceed expectations. Furthermore, within the Trump administration, there is caution regarding large-scale ground operations, with a preference for achieving regime change through deterrence and covert operations.

Regarding international reactions, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Amnesty International, and several U.S. Congress members have condemned the U.S. for sinking alleged drug smuggling vessels on the high seas as a violation of international law. The presidents of Mexico and Colombia have publicly criticized U.S. actions. While most Latin American countries have not yet taken a public stance, they are concerned that this action sets a precedent for intervention. The report points out that unilateral U.S. military action will accelerate South America's strategic shift towards alignment with China, damaging long-term U.S. regional influence and economic credibility.

The report's final conclusion emphasizes that cutting off Venezuelan oil supplies will not achieve the goal of Cuban regime change. Instead, it will exacerbate regional instability, trigger migration waves, impact the global oil market, and create more power vacuums within Venezuela. If the U.S. insists on pursuing military adventurism, it will pay a high geopolitical price, further weakening its dominant position in the Western Hemisphere. Meanwhile, the Cuban regime, due to its historical resilience and adaptability, is likely to persist under external pressure.