Annual Posture Assessment of the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal

Key Chapter Title List

1. Overall Scale and Composition of the Nuclear Arsenal
2. Warhead Dismantlement Progress and Stockpile Management
3. Land-based Ballistic Missile Forces and "Sentinel" System Modernization
4. Sea-based Nuclear Forces: Ohio-class and Columbia-class Submarines
5. Strategic Bomber Force and the B-21 "Raider"
6. Air-launched Cruise Missiles and New Warhead Development
7. Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons and NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements
8. Nuclear Posture Review and Nuclear War Planning
9. Nuclear Exercises and Evolution of Operational Concepts
10. Cost and Schedule Challenges of the Nuclear Modernization Program
11. U.S.-U.K. Nuclear Cooperation and Deterrence Patrols
12. Research Methodology and Confidence Assessment

Document Introduction

This report is authored by the Nuclear Information Project team of the Federation of American Scientists and is an authoritative open-source intelligence product providing a comprehensive and systematic assessment of U.S. nuclear forces in 2025. Based on official U.S. government documents, budget data, commercial satellite imagery, treaty disclosure information, and non-governmental analysis, the report constructs the most detailed public picture of the current U.S. nuclear arsenal.

The report's core assessment indicates that as of early 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads, with about 1,770 of them in operational deployment. Deployed warheads include 400 on land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles, approximately 970 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 at bomber bases in the continental United States, and about 100 tactical B61 bombs deployed at European bases. Additionally, there are approximately 1,930 warheads in the "reserve" stockpile, and another roughly 1,477 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, bringing the total U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to about 5,177. The report details the tracking of the warhead dismantlement rate, which has significantly slowed from an annual average of over 1,000 in the 1990s to only 69 in 2023, and examines the factors influencing this trend.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S.'s costly comprehensive nuclear modernization process. On the land-based front, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program aims to replace the Minuteman III but faces severe cost overruns and schedule delays, with the total estimated cost having surged to approximately $141 billion, triggering a critical breach review under the Nunn-McCurdy Act. On the sea-based front, the development and construction of the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is the Navy's top priority, but its lead boat is facing a 12-16 month delay, potentially affecting the smooth transition from Ohio-class submarine retirement to Columbia-class service entry. On the air-based front, the B-21 "Raider" stealth bomber is undergoing testing and is planned to gradually replace the B-1B and B-2; the new AGM-181 Long Range Standoff air-launched cruise missile and its accompanying W80-4 warhead are also under development. In the realm of non-strategic nuclear weapons, the new B61-12 guided nuclear gravity bomb has begun deployment and will gradually replace older B61 bombs deployed in Europe, while development of the higher-yield B61-13 variant has also been initiated.

The report also analyzes U.S. nuclear strategy and war planning. Although the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review retains the right to use nuclear weapons in "extreme circumstances" and rejects a "no first use" policy, it also expresses an intent to work towards a "sole purpose" declaration. The current strategic nuclear war plan, OPLAN 8010-12, targets Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, emphasizing flexibility, integration, and escalation control. The report documents U.S. Strategic Command nuclear exercise series such as "Global Lightning," "Vigilant Shield," and "Global Thunder," as well as the enhanced deployment of bomber task forces to forward areas in response to great power competition, with notably increased activity in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.

Furthermore, the report discusses the modernization of NATO nuclear sharing arrangements, including upgrades to storage facilities at European bases, the replacement of dual-capable aircraft (such as with the F-35A), and indications of a potential return of nuclear mission capability at RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. The report concludes by emphasizing the high transparency and cross-verification characteristics of its research methodology, which, benefiting from the relatively higher information transparency of the United States compared to other nuclear-armed states, lends its assessments a high degree of confidence.

Key Chapter Title List

1. Overall Scale and Composition of the Nuclear Arsenal
2. Warhead Dismantlement Progress and Stockpile Management
3. Land-based Ballistic Missile Forces and "Sentinel" System Modernization
4. Sea-based Nuclear Forces: Ohio-class and Columbia-class Submarines
5. Strategic Bomber Force and the B-21 "Raider"
6. Air-launched Cruise Missiles and New Warhead Development
7. Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons and NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements
8. Nuclear Posture Review and Nuclear War Planning
9. Nuclear Exercises and Evolution of Operational Concepts
10. Cost and Schedule Challenges of the Nuclear Modernization Program
11. U.S.-U.K. Nuclear Cooperation and Deterrence Patrols
12. Research Methodology and Confidence Assessment

Document Introduction

This report is authored by the Nuclear Information Project team of the Federation of American Scientists and is an authoritative open-source intelligence product providing a comprehensive and systematic assessment of U.S. nuclear forces in 2025. Based on official U.S. government documents, budget data, commercial satellite imagery, treaty disclosure information, and non-governmental analysis, the report constructs the most detailed public picture of the current U.S. nuclear arsenal.

The report's core assessment indicates that as of early 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads, with about 1,770 of them in operational deployment. Deployed warheads include 400 on land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles, approximately 970 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 at bomber bases in the continental United States, and about 100 tactical B61 bombs deployed at European bases. Additionally, there are approximately 1,930 warheads in the "reserve" stockpile, and another roughly 1,477 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, bringing the total U.S. nuclear warhead inventory to about 5,177. The report details the tracking of the warhead dismantlement rate, which has significantly slowed from an annual average of over 1,000 in the 1990s to only 69 in 2023, and examines the factors influencing this trend.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S.'s costly comprehensive nuclear modernization process. On the land-based front, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program aims to replace the Minuteman III but faces severe cost overruns and schedule delays, with the total estimated cost having surged to approximately $141 billion, triggering a critical breach review under the Nunn-McCurdy Act. On the sea-based front, the development and construction of the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is the Navy's top priority, but its lead boat is facing a 12-16 month delay, potentially affecting the smooth transition from Ohio-class submarine retirement to Columbia-class service entry. On the air-based front, the B-21 "Raider" stealth bomber is undergoing testing and is planned to gradually replace the B-1B and B-2; the new AGM-181 Long Range Standoff air-launched cruise missile and its accompanying W80-4 warhead are also under development. In the realm of non-strategic nuclear weapons, the new B61-12 guided nuclear gravity bomb has begun deployment and will gradually replace older B61 bombs deployed in Europe, while development of the higher-yield B61-13 variant has also been initiated.

The report also analyzes U.S. nuclear strategy and war planning. Although the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review retains the right to use nuclear weapons in "extreme circumstances" and rejects a "no first use" policy, it also expresses an intent to work towards a "sole purpose" declaration. The current strategic nuclear war plan, OPLAN 8010-12, targets Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, emphasizing flexibility, integration, and escalation control. The report documents U.S. Strategic Command nuclear exercise series such as "Global Lightning," "Vigilant Shield," and "Global Thunder," as well as the enhanced deployment of bomber task forces to forward areas in response to great power competition, with notably increased activity in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.

Furthermore, the report discusses the modernization of NATO nuclear sharing arrangements, including upgrades to storage facilities at European bases, the replacement of dual-capable aircraft (such as with the F-35A), and indications of a potential return of nuclear mission capability at RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. The report concludes by emphasizing the high transparency and cross-verification characteristics of its research methodology, which, benefiting from the relatively higher information transparency of the United States compared to other nuclear-armed states, lends its assessments a high degree of confidence.