Trump's First Day: Policy Shifts and Global Impact Assessment

Key Chapter Titles

1. A Radical Washington Presents Itself to the World
2. The Tariff President Upends Global Trade
3. Trump's Ambiguous Stance on NATO
4. Trump's Pivot to Russia and Weakening of Ukraine
5. Deciphering Trump 2.0's China Policy
6. The Trump Team's Zero-Sum Tech Race and American Dominance
7. Trump's Immigration Blitz
8. Climate Agenda Under Attack

Document Introduction

This report is jointly authored by several senior researchers from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). It aims to provide a systematic assessment and in-depth analysis of the policy directions during the first 90 days of a hypothetical "Trump 2.0" administration in the United States. The report focuses on the radical shifts in U.S. foreign and geo-economic policy during this period and their profound implications for transatlantic relations, the global order, and even European security and prosperity. The core context of the study is that at the outset of his potential second term, Trump signed a vast number of executive orders at an unprecedented pace, attempting to overturn the traditional pillars of post-war U.S. foreign policy, including its alliance system, the rules-based multilateral trade order, and its commitment to international climate cooperation.

The report's structure revolves around eight core policy areas. It begins by analyzing the ideological coalition driving Trump's new policies—the "New Right" coalition composed of Christian nationalists, economic nationalists, and the tech right. Their common ground lies in questioning the post-World War II model of American global leadership and advocating for an "America First" realpolitik. Subsequent chapters delve into specific policies: In the trade realm, Trump pursues a "Tariff President" strategy centered on "reciprocal tariffs" and protectionist measures targeting key industries, severely threatening the rules-based global trade system. In the security domain, the report assesses the ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to NATO and its intent to shift the defense burden to Europe, while detailing Washington's radical pivot towards seeking normalization with Russia at the expense of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Regarding China policy, the report notes that while not yet fully defined, it shows signs of intensifying competition through higher tariffs, technological containment, and a strategic pivot towards the Indo-Pacific. In the technology sector, the Trump administration's actions—such as dismantling regulatory frameworks and promoting an "American-led" AI development strategy—reflect a combination of techno-nationalism and deregulation. The chapters on immigration and climate policy reveal the Trump administration's direct challenges to global governance norms and humanitarian protection systems through strengthened border enforcement, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and cuts to climate financing.

The report concludes by offering a series of strategic response recommendations for the new German government and European partners. The core conclusion emphasizes that Europe must reduce its excessive dependence on the United States. It should build strategic autonomy and resilience by strengthening the internal market, coordinating defense procurement, advancing European defense integration, improving the common migration and asylum system, and adhering to its own climate ambitions and regulatory standards. The report argues that while the initial policies of a Trump 2.0 administration would be fraught with unpredictability and disruption, they could also provide urgent external impetus for Europe to finally achieve the long-sought "Zeitenwende" (turning point).

Key Chapter Titles

1. A Radical Washington Presents Itself to the World
2. The Tariff President Upends Global Trade
3. Trump's Ambiguous Stance on NATO
4. Trump's Pivot to Russia and Weakening of Ukraine
5. Deciphering Trump 2.0's China Policy
6. The Trump Team's Zero-Sum Tech Race and American Dominance
7. Trump's Immigration Blitz
8. Climate Agenda Under Attack

Document Introduction

This report is jointly authored by several senior researchers from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). It aims to provide a systematic assessment and in-depth analysis of the policy directions during the first 90 days of a hypothetical "Trump 2.0" administration in the United States. The report focuses on the radical shifts in U.S. foreign and geo-economic policy during this period and their profound implications for transatlantic relations, the global order, and even European security and prosperity. The core context of the study is that at the outset of his potential second term, Trump signed a vast number of executive orders at an unprecedented pace, attempting to overturn the traditional pillars of post-war U.S. foreign policy, including its alliance system, the rules-based multilateral trade order, and its commitment to international climate cooperation.

The report's structure revolves around eight core policy areas. It begins by analyzing the ideological coalition driving Trump's new policies—the "New Right" coalition composed of Christian nationalists, economic nationalists, and the tech right. Their common ground lies in questioning the post-World War II model of American global leadership and advocating for an "America First" realpolitik. Subsequent chapters delve into specific policies: In the trade realm, Trump pursues a "Tariff President" strategy centered on "reciprocal tariffs" and protectionist measures targeting key industries, severely threatening the rules-based global trade system. In the security domain, the report assesses the ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to NATO and its intent to shift the defense burden to Europe, while detailing Washington's radical pivot towards seeking normalization with Russia at the expense of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Regarding China policy, the report notes that while not yet fully defined, it shows signs of intensifying competition through higher tariffs, technological containment, and a strategic pivot towards the Indo-Pacific. In the technology sector, the Trump administration's actions—such as dismantling regulatory frameworks and promoting an "American-led" AI development strategy—reflect a combination of techno-nationalism and deregulation. The chapters on immigration and climate policy reveal the Trump administration's direct challenges to global governance norms and humanitarian protection systems through strengthened border enforcement, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and cuts to climate financing.

The report concludes by offering a series of strategic response recommendations for the new German government and European partners. The core conclusion emphasizes that Europe must reduce its excessive dependence on the United States. It should build strategic autonomy and resilience by strengthening the internal market, coordinating defense procurement, advancing European defense integration, improving the common migration and asylum system, and adhering to its own climate ambitions and regulatory standards. The report argues that while the initial policies of a Trump 2.0 administration would be fraught with unpredictability and disruption, they could also provide urgent external impetus for Europe to finally achieve the long-sought "Zeitenwende" (turning point).