The Economic and Social Costs of the Gaza War

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Introduction
2. Socioeconomic Impacts of the Middle East Conflict
3. Middle Eastern Economies Prior to the Israel-Gaza Conflict
4. Regional Impact: The Economic Cost of Conflict
5. Regional Impact: The Social Cost of Conflict – Food Insecurity and Social Vulnerability
6. Global Impact: Geopolitical Risks and Commodity Markets
7. Global Impact: Global Financial Risks
8. Global Impact: Maritime Transport Disruptions Due to Security Concerns
9. Conclusion

Document Overview

The Middle East has long been characterized by geopolitical turbulence and conflict. The Israel-Gaza war, as the latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has resulted in tragic loss of life, large-scale displacement, and massive infrastructure destruction, exerting profound economic and social impacts on the region and the world. This report aims to systematically assess the impact of this war on different types of economies, including the core conflict countries (Israel and the Palestinian territories), neighboring countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon), fragile and conflict-affected states, as well as Gulf Cooperation Council and Maghreb countries.

The report first outlines the historical context of conflicts in the Middle East and the mechanisms of their socioeconomic impacts, reviewing the development status of relevant economies before the outbreak of the conflict. This includes Israel's economic recovery trends, the structural challenges in the Palestinian territories, the macroeconomic challenges faced by neighboring countries, and the long-term development shortcomings of fragile states. Building on this foundation, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the war's regional impact from both economic and social dimensions. The economic dimension covers infrastructure damage, slowing economic growth, sectoral losses, heightened current account vulnerability, increased fiscal pressures, disruptions to banking and financial stability, and labor market shocks. The social dimension focuses on the worsening of food insecurity and the rise in social vulnerability, particularly in regions such as the Palestinian territories, Yemen, and Lebanon.

At the global level, the report explores the effects of war-induced geopolitical risks on commodity markets, potential risks to the global financial system, and the maritime transport disruptions caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, along with their ripple effects on global trade, supply chains, and the environment. The analysis is based on authoritative data sources such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and relevant United Nations agencies, employing a country- and sector-specific assessment framework to ensure the objectivity and credibility of the conclusions.

The report points out that if the conflict continues to escalate, it will exacerbate regional political instability, deter foreign investment, increase inflationary pressures, and further tighten global financial conditions. Achieving a permanent ceasefire and formulating a robust reconstruction plan are the only viable paths to safeguarding the socioeconomic well-being of the region. Peacebuilding efforts mediated by the international community are crucial not only for the people of the region but also for the stable development of the global economy. This report provides a comprehensive and in-depth reference for policymakers, think tank researchers, and geopolitical analysts, aiding in the understanding of the conflict's complex impacts and potential response directions.