Conflict and Change in the Middle East and North Africa: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

Key Chapter Title List

1. The Gaza War and the Future of Regional Geopolitics
2. The Geoeconomic Impact of the Middle East War
3. The Stable Instability of North Africa
4. Gulf Monarchies: Between Regional Politics and International Strategy
5. The Future of North-South Relations: The EU and the MENA Region
6. Who Dominates the Middle East?
7. Palestine Faces a Leadership Crisis Under Unprecedented Threats
8. One Year After the October 7th Event, Israeli Society Still Struggles
9. Hezbollah After Nasrallah
10. Iran's Long-Term Strategy in Peripheral Regions
11. Gaza as Europe's Mirror: Reflections on EU Middle East Policy
12. EU-GCC Strategic Partnership: Development Under the Shadow of the Gaza War

Document Introduction

The Gaza War that erupted on October 7, 2023, stemming from the decades-long unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict, reignited with extreme violence, causing massive civilian casualties and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. This conflict, lasting over a year, has spread to multiple battlefields involving state and non-state actors, forming a multi-front asymmetrical confrontation that has completely shattered the fragile balance maintained in the Middle East in recent years.

This report comprehensively analyzes the conflict dynamics and trends of change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on the two core dimensions of geopolitics and geoeconomics. The report covers North African countries such as Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as key Middle Eastern forces including Israel, Palestine, Iran, and member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), systematically presenting the strategic games and entangled interests of diverse actors within the region.

On the political dimension, the report delves into key issues such as the Palestinian leadership crisis, internal divisions within Israeli society, Hezbollah's transformation after Nasrallah's assassination, and the operation of Iran's regional proxy networks. It reveals the core driving role of non-state actors in regional instability, as well as the lack of consensus and diplomatic dilemmas among Arab states regarding the Israeli-Palestinian issue. On the economic level, it analyzes the war's economic impact on directly affected countries like Palestine, Lebanon, and Israel, including GDP contraction, soaring unemployment, and infrastructure destruction. It also explores the ripple effects of Red Sea shipping disruptions and the sharp decline in Suez Canal revenues on regional and global trade, along with the future prospects of connectivity projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).

The report also focuses on the "stable instability" state in North Africa, analyzing regional issues such as the spillover effects of Sahel region turmoil, Tunisia's immigration policy controversies, and the deadlock in Libya's peace process. It elaborates on the strategic adjustments of Gulf monarchies in a multipolar world, including deepening investment cooperation with China, collaboration and divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the evolution of North-South relations between the EU and the MENA region.

Based on multi-country case studies, data assessments, and expert analysis, this report provides an authoritative perspective for understanding the roots and impacts of regional conflicts, the strategic intentions of various parties, and the future direction of the region. It holds significant reference value for defense researchers, international relations scholars, policymakers, and geopolitics enthusiasts.