The proliferation of ballistic missiles and the rise of space programs in the Middle East.

Key Chapter Title List

1. Ballistic Missiles, Space Launch Vehicles, and the Global Strategic Context
2. Ballistic Missile and Space Activities in the Middle East
3. Iran's Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Vehicle Development
4. The Independent Development of Iran's Civilian Space Program
5. Israel's Comprehensive Space Power
6. The Rise and Impact of Other Regional Space Programs
7. Non-Kinetic and Kinetic Counterspace Activities in the Middle East
8. The Space Access Competition Among Gulf States
9. Geographic Location and Regional Space Launches
10. The Role and Influence of External Actors in Middle East Space Technology
11. Commercial Space Competition, Missile Defense, and Counterspace Capabilities
12. The Utility of Diplomatic Tools in Addressing Ballistic Missile Proliferation and Achieving Space Security

Document Introduction

The proliferation of ballistic missiles and the spread of space satellite technology have become global phenomena, with the Middle East deeply entrenched in this trend. Since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the Middle East has remained a core region of international concern regarding ballistic missile proliferation. States and non-state actors within the region have acquired ballistic missile capabilities, viewing them as crucial tools for safeguarding strategic interests. Concurrently, over the past two decades, Middle Eastern countries have significantly elevated their space ambitions, actively developing space launch vehicles and establishing regional space launch sites. The intertwining of space technology and ballistic missile technology presents complex implications for regional security and stability.

This report, as a specialized study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), focuses on the connection between ballistic missile proliferation and the spread of space technology in the Middle East. It provides an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of this connection on further regional proliferation, security, and stability, as well as the practical utility of various diplomatic tools in addressing Middle East ballistic missile proliferation and achieving space security. The report employs an analytical framework based on changes in the global strategic context of missile proliferation and emerging forms of regional economic and geopolitical competition, comprehensively covering the relevant activities and technological developments of major regional actors.

On the technical dimension, the report notes that modern space launch vehicle and ballistic missile programs have largely decoupled in most countries, a trend stemming from the commercial transformation of the space industry and the technological divergence of the two systems. However, the widespread application of dual-use technologies such as satellites is driving regional states to enhance their military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, potentially spurring the development of counterspace capabilities. The conversion of ballistic missiles into direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) weapons is of particular concern. The development paths of major Middle Eastern countries show significant differences: Iran continues to use its civilian space program to conceal advancements in ballistic missile technology; Israel has built a comprehensive space power encompassing missiles, missile defense, space launch vehicles, and satellites; while Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia advance their space programs through commercial partnerships and investment.

The report also systematically analyzes the role of external actors in the spread of space and missile technology in the Middle East, with China, North Korea, Russia, and Western countries adopting distinctly different strategies. In terms of diplomatic control, the utility of existing international regimes such as the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement is limited in the Middle East. However, interest in regional space cooperation offers new opportunities for dialogue and confidence-building. The report ultimately proposes that future policies should focus on encouraging legitimate space activities, promoting regional space cooperation, and maintaining robust monitoring mechanisms to mitigate the risks of technology misuse.