Russia's position in the Middle East in 2024

Key Chapter Title List

1. Abstract
2. Introduction
3. Moscow and Its Enablers
4. Weapons Sales
5. The Learning State: Moscow's Clausewitzian Practice
6. The Naval Dimension
7. Domestic Politics, Economy, and Energy
8. Conclusion

Document Introduction

Predicting events and trends in the Middle East is inherently uncertain. However, from the perspective of mid-2018, analyzing Russia's posture and scope of presence in the region through 2025 holds significant practical importance. Relying on its own strategic acumen, Moscow has achieved a rising status in the Middle East that extends beyond Syria. While its actions demonstrate tactical flexibility, they consistently serve long-term strategic objectives, propelling Russia to an unprecedented level of influence in the region.

This report systematically analyzes the core pillars of Russia's sustained regional advantage: the combination of power tools including diplomacy, military, and economics, as well as the network of partners built around the Syria issue—partners who have a major stake in the success of Russia's regional policy and serve as crucial support for the continuation of its strategy. Through a "network diplomacy" model, Russia establishes cooperation with various parties without becoming entangled in regional internal disputes, while actively enhancing its military power projection capabilities, laying the groundwork for its regional presence in 2025 and beyond.

The report delves into Russia's multi-dimensional strategic practices: weapons sales as a core means of binding political, military, and economic interests, not only supporting its defense industry but also serving as a vital avenue for expanding regional influence; military operations in Syria have become a "laboratory" for testing its modern warfare capabilities, achieving strategic objectives with limited forces through innovative force application models such as private military companies; the deployment of naval forces and the construction of base networks (covering key areas like the Black Sea, Mediterranean, and Caspian Sea) establish an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system, significantly enhancing its regional deterrence capabilities.

On the domestic front, Russia's demographic changes, energy economic needs, and aspirations for great power status constitute enduring internal drivers for its involvement in the Middle East. The report points out that Russia is gradually replacing the United States' traditional leadership role in the region. Through multiple means such as energy cooperation, conflict mediation, and base construction, it is building a strategic influence network spanning the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Barring a major unforeseen catastrophe, Russia will maintain or even strengthen its dominant position in the Middle East by 2025. Its strategic success provides an important case study for understanding the geopolitical restructuring of the 21st century.