Turkey's Geopolitical Landscape in 2024: The Quest for Strategic Stability in a World of Conflict

Key Chapter Title List

1. Turkey's Geopolitical Outlook: The Search for Strategic Stability in a World of Conflict
2. 2024: A Year of Watchful Waiting in Turkey-US Diplomatic Relations
3. Turkey-EU Relations: Development Trends and Future Prospects
4. Turkey and the Middle East: A Challenging Year
5. Syria: An Uncertain Future
6. The South Caucasus: Risks and Opportunities
7. The Eastern Mediterranean: Developments and Prospects
8. Turkey-Russia Relations: Resilient Cooperation Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
9. Outlook for Turkey-Africa Relations in 2024: Risks and Opportunities
10. Turkey's Counter-Terrorism Operations: Dynamic Developments and Regional Security Responses
11. Turkey's Defense Industry and Defense Procurement

Document Introduction

In 2023, the international system experienced multiple unexpected events and strategic shifts. Major power election cycles, ongoing conflicts, and global challenges reshaped the geopolitical landscape. Core issues such as the Ukraine crisis, the Taiwan issue, Iran's nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensified international tensions and uncertainty. Fluctuations in energy prices and climate change further amplified political risks, making the trend of rebalancing in the global power structure increasingly evident. Against this backdrop, Turkey, as a key regional actor, faces complex strategic choices in its foreign, security, and defense policies. Achieving strategic stability in an environment surrounded by conflicts has become its core objective.

This report was compiled by the SETA Foundation, bringing together multiple experts in the fields of geopolitics and security. It systematically reviews the key events and dynamics that shaped Turkey's foreign policy in 2023. The report has a clear structure, covering the evolution of Turkey's relations with major powers (the US, Russia, the EU), its interactions with regions such as the Middle East, the South Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Africa, as well as core issues like the Syrian question, counter-terrorism operations, and defense industry development, constructing a comprehensive and in-depth analytical framework.

The analysis is based on the review and assessment of multi-dimensional facts from the 2023 international environment, regional conflicts, and bilateral relations. Combining geopolitical theory and policy analysis methods, it focuses on examining Turkey's strategic trade-offs in great power competition, regional conflicts, and the fight against terrorism. The information underpinning the report includes official statements, policy documents, bilateral agreements, conflict dynamic data, and in-depth expert assessments, ensuring the objectivity and credibility of the analysis.

The report's core findings indicate that in 2024, Turkey will continue to seek strategic autonomy in a complex geopolitical environment. Unresolved issues in Turkey-US relations (such as the YPG issue, F-16 procurement, Sweden's NATO membership status), cooperation and divergences in Turkey-EU relations, resilient cooperation with Russia, and the spillover effects of conflicts in the Middle East will be key factors influencing its policy direction. Turkey's counter-terrorism operations will continue to focus on northern Iraq and Syria. The autonomous development of its defense industry and foreign cooperation will serve as crucial supports for enhancing its regional influence.

This report provides an authoritative reference for professional audiences such as defense researchers, international relations scholars, and policy analysts to understand Turkey's geopolitical strategic layout and regional security dynamics. It holds significant academic and policy value for grasping the evolution of the security landscape in the Eurasian-African junction zone in 2024.