NATO Indo-Pacific Strategy Forward-Looking Perspective and Security Considerations Report

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. Prologue: The Indo-Pacific – Between China's Historical Legacy and Geopolitical Ambiguity
3. Chapter 1 Political Themes
4. Chapter 2 Human Themes
5. Chapter 3 Technological Themes
6. Chapter 4 Economic/Resource Themes
7. Chapter 5 Environmental Themes
8. Scenario Analysis
9. Conclusion
10. Summary of Five Major Themes, Fifteen Key Trends, and Fifty-Five Implications for NATO

Document Introduction

This report, issued by NATO's Allied Command Transformation, aims to inform strategic discussions within the Alliance regarding the Indo-Pacific region and to support the future work of Allied Command Transformation. Currently, the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly important for the security and defense policies of many NATO countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, which has led to decisive changes in the global security environment, the strategic significance of this region is further highlighted.

The report adopts a long-term perspective towards 2040 and beyond, analyzing five core themes: political, human, technological, economic/resource, and environmental. The political dimension focuses on core issues such as systemic competition between China and the US, the redistribution of geostrategic and military power, and territorial disputes. The human dimension explores trends including demographic changes, uneven regional development, and religious and ethnic heterogeneity. The technological dimension focuses on competition in the technology industry, the application of disruptive technologies, and the struggle for dominance in the space domain. The economic/resource dimension analyzes the eastward shift of the global economic center of gravity, intensifying resource competition, and the restructuring of defense expenditures. The environmental dimension focuses on regional vulnerabilities induced by climate change and the security challenges posed by the increasing frequency of natural disasters.

The report employs strategic foresight analysis, integrating diverse perspectives from academia, think tanks, and industry representatives. By constructing three scenarios (Moderate Competition among Major Powers, Intense Competition among Major Powers, and Multipolar Actor Competition), it simulates potential future development paths for the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, the report identifies key trends under each theme and their potential implications for NATO, forming a systematic trend-implication matrix to provide data support and logical reference for decision-making.

Key findings indicate that the Indo-Pacific region will become the most intensely contested and sensitive area globally. China's rise and its strategic actions will have profound impacts on the regional order, while cross-cutting factors such as demographics, technological innovation, and climate change will further exacerbate regional complexity. For NATO, it is necessary to adopt a 360-degree security perspective, enhance awareness and anticipation of regional trends, maintain technological superiority, and deepen partnerships with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region to address both the indirect and direct impacts of the region's developments on transatlantic security.