The Issue of Maneuver Recovery in Ukraine and Contemporary Warfare

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Core Problems Facing the War
3. New Challenge: The Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike Complex (TRSC)
4. Introduction: The Future of War Depends on the Ukrainian Battlefield
5. Restoring Operational-Level Maneuver Remains the War's Core Dilemma
6. Analysis of the 2023 Counteroffensive Campaign
7. 2023 Counteroffensive Assessment: Two Major Conceptual Errors
8. Russia's Failure to Restore Battlefield Maneuver in Early 2024
9. Defining the Fundamental Problems of the Contemporary War in Ukraine
10. Solution: A New Path for Campaign Design
11. Neutralizing the Russian Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike Complex (TRSC)
12. Integrating Long-Range Strikes with Ground Maneuver

Document Introduction

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is reshaping the character of war in profound ways. The core dilemmas of contemporary warfare it presents are not limited to the belligerents but also significantly impact the future operational systems of the United States, NATO, and their allies. This report aims to assess the causes of the positional warfare characteristics on the Ukrainian battlefield, provide strategic recommendations for Ukraine and its Western supporters to restore battlefield maneuver, and distill key military innovations that will shape future great-power conflicts.

The report divides the war's core dilemmas into two categories: traditional recurring problems and technology-driven new problems. Traditional problems include the difficulty of defeating a modern great power through a single decisive battle, the extremely high cost of breakthrough operations, and the defender's ability to establish successive lines of defense. The core of the new problem is the emergence of the Tactical Reconnaissance-Strike Complex (TRSC). This system integrates drone reconnaissance, precision artillery fire, electronic warfare, and other elements, forming a dynamically evolving defensive advantage and becoming a primary driver of positional warfare.

Through an in-depth analysis of the campaign design of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and Russia's defense, the report identifies two major conceptual errors in Ukraine's counteroffensive: over-reliance on a single decisive offensive and misjudgment of the applicability of NATO operational concepts. Simultaneously, the report elaborates on the underlying reasons for Russia's failure to achieve operational-level maneuver in its early 2024 offensive, highlighting the critical role of drones and electronic warfare on the modern battlefield.

Based on an analytical framework that fuses Soviet military theory and the U.S. AirLand Battle doctrine, the report proposes three core tasks for restoring battlefield maneuver: neutralizing the Russian TRSC system, constructing new principles for campaign design, and planning multiple rounds of consecutive operations. Specific solutions include exploiting the inherent vulnerabilities of the TRSC to achieve localized, temporary suppression, achieving battlefield surprise through tactical innovation, conducting counterattacks against the culmination point of Russian offensives, and integrating long-range strikes with ground maneuver.

The report emphasizes that Ukraine's innovative environment and dynamic adaptability are its core advantages relative to Russia, while long-term Western military aid and policy support are necessary conditions for Ukraine to break the deadlock of positional warfare. This study not only provides an actionable campaign design framework for Ukraine's future counteroffensives but also offers important insights for great powers to understand the evolution of contemporary warfare and to optimize military strategy and equipment development.